Houston @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Citizens Bank Park projects as the #24 ballpark in the league for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to worse offense. Hitting from the same side that Justin Verlander throws from, Alec Bohm has a tough challenge in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Alec Bohm's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%. Alec Bohm's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 90.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 84.8-mph over the last 7 days.

Chas McCormick's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. Chas McCormick will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of every team in action today. In terms of his batting average, Chas McCormick has had some very poor luck this year. His .192 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .221.

Citizens Bank Park projects as the #24 ballpark in the league for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to worse offense. Batting from the same side that Justin Verlander throws from, Trea Turner will not have the upper hand in today's game. Trea Turner has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 6.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last week. Compared to his seasonal mark of 9°, Trea Turner's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly in recent games (2.4° in the past 14 days).

Citizens Bank Park projects as the #24 ballpark in the league for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to worse offense. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Alex Bregman will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alex Bregman in today's matchup.

Citizens Bank Park projects as the #24 ballpark in the league for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to worse offense. Jose Altuve will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today. Jose Altuve will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. When it comes to his batting average, Jose Altuve has had positive variance on his side this year. His .296 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .275.

Citizens Bank Park projects as the #24 ballpark in the league for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to worse offense. Yainer Diaz will have the handedness advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yainer Diaz today. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 21.6% to 12.1%.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander in today's matchup. Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Brandon Marsh will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Brandon Marsh has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 9.5% seasonal rate to 29.4% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Batting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage in today's matchup. Bryson Stott has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Over the past week, Bryson Stott's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.2% up to 11.8%.

The #5 stadium in baseball for suppressing base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to worse offense. Yordan Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the past two weeks, Yordan Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.9% down to 4.2%. Yordan Alvarez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, going from 43.2% on the season to 20% over the last 7 days.

Jake Meyers's BABIP ability is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of every team in action today. Jake Meyers has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.1-mph average to last season's 86-mph EV. In the past 14 days, Jake Meyers's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.1%.

Austin Hays pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Austin Hays will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Checking in at the 77th percentile, Austin Hays sports a .318 BABIP this year.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Kyle Schwarber ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Justin Verlander in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of every team in action today. Jeremy Pena has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.8% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the past two weeks. In the last 7 days, Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 102.5-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Nick Castellanos will hold that advantage today. Nick Castellanos's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 15% to 19.2%.

HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of every team in action today. Using Statcast metrics, Victor Caratini ranks in the 87th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .273. In notching a .334 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Victor Caratini finds himself in the 82nd percentile. In notching a .278 batting average this year, Victor Caratini is positioned in the 87th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage in today's game. J.T. Realmuto has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 93.9-mph. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, J.T. Realmuto has suffered from bad luck this year. His .318 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average talent is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of every team in action today. Mauricio Dubon has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 89-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 86.6-mph figure. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.6°, Mauricio Dubon has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 21.5° angle over the last 14 days.

HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. Cristopher Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage over Ben Gamel today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of every team in action today. In the last 7 days, Ben Gamel has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 13th-best hitter in baseball. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Verlander in today's matchup. Bryce Harper has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jon Singleton is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. Batting from the same side that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Jon Singleton meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of every team in action today. Jon Singleton has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.8% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 7 days.