Chicago @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 11th-worst stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Hitting from the same side that Chris Flexen throws from, Yainer Diaz will be in a tough position today. Yainer Diaz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 11th-worst stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Hitting from the same side that Chris Flexen throws from, Jeremy Pena faces a tough challenge today. Jeremy Pena's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 87.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 85.3-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 11th-worst stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Chris Flexen throws from, Jose Altuve will be at a disadvantage today. Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 7 days.

Minute Maid Park profiles as the #21 venue in the game for lefty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Today, Yordan Alvarez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (87th percentile). Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.285) provides evidence that Yordan Alvarez has had positive variance on his side this year with his .304 actual batting average.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hitters such as Miguel Vargas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. In terms of his batting average, Miguel Vargas has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .193 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .218. By putting up a 1.73 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Miguel Vargas has demonstrated good plate discipline, checking in at the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Andrew Benintendi is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Andrew Benintendi will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's matchup. Andrew Benintendi's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (17.9°) is a significant increase over his 13.4° figure last year. In the last 7 days, Andrew Benintendi's 76.9% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.9%.

Riley Baldwin has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.1% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the past week's worth of games. Riley Baldwin has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.7-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 91.6-mph. Riley Baldwin's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (26.8° in the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 20.9° seasonal mark.

Chas McCormick's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.219) provides evidence that Chas McCormick has experienced some negative variance this year with his .196 actual batting average.

Luis Robert's BABIP talent is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Robert is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Among all parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Luis Robert has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.9-mph mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Robert's true offensive skill to be a .325, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .030 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .295 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Mauricio Dubon has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 92.7-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 87.2-mph.

Nicky Lopez is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Nicky Lopez will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today. Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Nicky Lopez's launch angle this season (6.2°) is considerably higher than his 0.2° figure last year. Posting a 1.86 K/BB rate this year, Nicky Lopez has shown favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 82nd percentile.

Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all stadiums — generally good for HRs. Dominic Fletcher will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's game. Checking in at the 88th percentile, Dominic Fletcher sits with a .338 BABIP since the start of last season.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew Vaughn is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. Andrew Vaughn has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 10.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.8°, Andrew Vaughn has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22.2° figure over the last two weeks. Andrew Vaughn has been unlucky this year, notching a .303 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .028 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Among all parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to last year, Jake Meyers has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40% to 47.1% this season. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) provides evidence that Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side this year with his .229 actual batting average.

Among all parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Korey Lee has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 8% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last week. Over the last 7 days, Korey Lee's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 104.1-mph in recent games. Korey Lee's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 15.9% on the season to 42.9% in the past week's worth of games. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.240) provides evidence that Korey Lee has had some very poor luck this year with his .216 actual batting average.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all stadiums — generally good for HRs. Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Brown today. Over the past 7 days, Gavin Sheets's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.1-mph lately. Over the past 14 days, Gavin Sheets has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 22.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.3°.

Victor Caratini will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 8.8% to 19.1%. Victor Caratini has compiled a .280 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Victor Caratini has notched a .337 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 81st percentile. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Victor Caratini sits with a .275 batting average this year.

Jon Singleton is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Jon Singleton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Flexen in today's game. Jon Singleton will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Checking in at the 93rd percentile, the hardest ball Jon Singleton has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.4 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

Lenyn Sosa has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.1-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.8-mph figure. Lenyn Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 13% to 17.4%. Lenyn Sosa has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .246 mark is a fair amount lower than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Among all parks, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.