Boston @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Josh Winckowski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Mountcastle in today's game. Ryan Mountcastle has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 8.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 14 days. Ryan Mountcastle's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 93.9-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 79.9-mph over the last 14 days. Compared to his seasonal mark of 9.6°, Ryan Mountcastle's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly in recent games (-1.2° in the past 14 days). When it comes to plate discipline, Ryan Mountcastle's skill is quite weak, putting up a 3.78 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 21st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 19th-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Josh Winckowski throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Josh Winckowski throws from, Cedric Mullins II will have an edge in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins II pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Cedric Mullins II will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Jackson Holliday will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josh Winckowski today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The #9 venue in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 6th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best hitter in the majors. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Nick Sogard pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 6th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Over the past 14 days, Nick Sogard's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 64% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Josh Winckowski Over the past two weeks, Adley Rutschman's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%. Adley Rutschman's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 90.2-mph seasonal average has dropped to 82.1-mph over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 11th-best hitter in the league when estimating his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Jarren Duran will have the upper hand in today's game.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The #9 venue in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 85°. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 6th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The #9 venue in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Ramon Urias has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Ramon Urias will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Ramon Urias has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 93.3-mph in the past two weeks.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 16th-best hitter in MLB. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Josh Winckowski throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Eloy Jimenez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. The #9 venue in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Eloy Jimenez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 85°. Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage against Corbin Burnes in today's game. Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Anthony Santander will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Triston Casas will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage over Corbin Burnes in today's game. Masataka Yoshida hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The #9 venue in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and James McCann will hold that advantage in today's game. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, James McCann has experienced some negative variance this year. His .266 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .317.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 6th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #9 field in the league for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The #9 venue in MLB for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 86°. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 6th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 85°. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the weakest out of every team today. Ryan O'Hearn will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.