Houston @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field projects as the #27 park in the game for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Yandy Diaz's launch angle of late (0.5° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit worse than his 4.1° seasonal angle. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (0.2°) is considerably lower than his 4.9° mark last season.

Tropicana Field projects as the #27 park in the game for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Shane Baz throws from, Yainer Diaz will have a tough challenge in today's matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams on the slate today. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yainer Diaz today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Hitting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Jose Siri will have an advantage in today's game. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Siri has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year's 94-mph average.

Zachary Dezenzo's BABIP talent is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. The standard deviation of Zachary Dezenzo's launch angle has been very consistent in recent games (32.4° in the past week), which is an indicator of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Chas McCormick has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Chas McCormick has suffered from bad luck given the .057 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's matchup. Yordan Alvarez has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 14.4% seasonal rate to 27.8% in the past 7 days. Yordan Alvarez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.9-mph EV.

Hitting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Jose Caballero will have an edge in today's game. Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Caballero will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the past 14 days, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.9-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph recently. Jose Caballero's launch angle of late (20° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 13.7° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. By putting up a .282 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Jeremy Pena has performed in the 90th percentile. Placing in the 86th percentile, Jeremy Pena sits with a .279 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Over the past week, Alex Bregman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.2% up to 14.3%. Alex Bregman has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 95.6-mph over the last 7 days. In the past 7 days, Alex Bregman's 61.9% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.8%.

Jake Meyers's BABIP talent is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. In the last week's worth of games, Jake Meyers's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.6%. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 40% to 46.6%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side this year. His .297 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .343.

Victor Caratini has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph figure. In the last two weeks, Victor Caratini's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.5-mph over the course of the season to 98.2-mph of late. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 8.8% to 19.5%. Victor Caratini has posted a .286 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting a .281 batting average this year, Victor Caratini finds himself in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. In the last 7 days, Jose Altuve has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 23.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.5°. Placing in the 87th percentile, Jose Altuve has posted a .353 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Yusei Kikuchi. Taylor Walls will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Taylor Walls has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 3.7% seasonal rate to 10.5% over the past 14 days. In the last 7 days, Taylor Walls's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.9-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Mauricio Dubon has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 3.3% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Over the past two weeks, Mauricio Dubon's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.1-mph over the course of the season to 95.6-mph of late.

Dylan Carlson is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Yusei Kikuchi in this game. Dylan Carlson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (24.4°) is quite a bit higher than his 15° figure last year.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Brandon Lowe has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 95.1-mph. Brandon Lowe's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (18.3°) is considerably better than his 13.9° angle last year.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Christopher Morel will have the upper hand in today's game. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Curtis Mead will have the handedness advantage over Yusei Kikuchi today. Curtis Mead has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage in today's game. Curtis Mead has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 4.5% seasonal rate to 11.1% over the last 7 days.

Alex Jackson will hold the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Alex Jackson will hold that advantage in today's game. Alex Jackson has been unlucky this year, posting a .197 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .281 — a .084 deviation. This year, Alex Jackson's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 78th percentile at 94.1 mph.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.