Texas @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Corey Seager will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Given Jose Urena's large platoon split, Rob Refsnyder will be at a colossal disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game. The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Rob Refsnyder's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 91.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 77-mph over the past week. In the past two weeks, Rob Refsnyder's 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 47.3%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Kutter Crawford will have the handedness advantage over Marcus Semien in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Marcus Semien will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Marcus Semien's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 21.1% to 15.7%.

This year, Masataka Yoshida has been pulled from the game early in 13% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Typically, batters like Masataka Yoshida who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jose Urena. The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams playing today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Rafael Devers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 14.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 7.1% in the past week. Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 96.3-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 86.7-mph in the past 7 days. Rafael Devers's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (4.1° over the past week) is quite a bit worse than his 11.3° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an edge today. Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Josh Smith is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Josh Smith will have the handedness advantage against Kutter Crawford today. Josh Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung as the 17th-best batter in the game as it relates to his BABIP ability. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in baseball for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Josh Jung's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 50% on the season to 44.4% in the past week's worth of games.

Fenway Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Given Jose Urena's large platoon split, Dominic Smith will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Dominic Smith will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week, Dominic Smith's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.5% up to 33.3%.

David Hamilton is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Because of Jose Urena's large platoon split, David Hamilton will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. David Hamilton will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Urena in today's matchup... and moreover, Urena has a large platoon split. Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Wilyer Abreu tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Urena.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Fenway Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in baseball for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. In the past week's worth of games, Wyatt Langford's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91-mph over the course of the season to 97.8-mph recently.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in baseball for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in baseball for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Fenway Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Jonah Heim pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Leody Taveras has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Leody Taveras has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 5.9% seasonal rate to 11.8% over the past two weeks.

Fenway Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in baseball for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Carson Kelly hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Carson Kelly has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.7-mph average to last season's 90.3-mph figure.

Fenway Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nick Sogard pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Nick Sogard will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Nick Sogard has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits in recent games, hitting balls between -4° and 26° 68.8% of the time over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 ballpark in baseball for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ceddanne Rafaela has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 40.2% on the season to 63.6% over the past week.