Houston @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field ranks as the #27 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). This matchup is expected to have the 6th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Typically, bats like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Framber Valdez. The Houston Astros outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team today. Yandy Diaz's launch angle of late (0.5° over the past 14 days) is considerably worse than his 4.1° seasonal figure.

Tropicana Field ranks as the #27 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). This matchup is expected to have the 6th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Hitting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Yainer Diaz will have a tough challenge in today's matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among every team playing today. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yainer Diaz in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Brandon Lowe generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today. Brandon Lowe has made big improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.7% rate last season to 15.8% this season.

Jose Caballero has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Jose Caballero will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Caballero has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 89.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jose Siri will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez today. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today. This season, Jose Siri has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.7 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Over the last week, Yordan Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.4% up to 27.8%. Yordan Alvarez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 92.9-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Altuve's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (23.1° in the past 7 days) is considerably higher than his 17.5° seasonal mark. Placing in the 87th percentile, Jose Altuve sports a .353 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Chas McCormick has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Chas McCormick has had bad variance on his side given the .057 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.

Zachary Dezenzo's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums. A consistent launch angle is a measure of good hitting, and Zachary Dezenzo has been very consistent with his in recent games, compiling a 32.4° launch angle standard deviation in the last 7 days.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will get to bat from his good side against Framber Valdez in this game. Taylor Walls will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Taylor Walls has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 3.7% seasonal rate to 10.5% in the past two weeks. Taylor Walls has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.9-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 89.8-mph.

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Framber Valdez. Dylan Carlson will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (24.4°) is quite a bit better than his 15° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 18.6% on the season to 30.8% in the past week's worth of games. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 40% to 46.6%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side this year. His .297 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .343.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums. Jeremy Pena has posted a .282 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In notching a .279 batting average this year, Jeremy Pena finds himself in the 86th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Alex Bregman has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 5.2% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last week. Alex Bregman has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 95.6-mph in the past 7 days. Alex Bregman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 42.8% on the season to 61.9% over the last 7 days.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Christopher Morel will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Curtis Mead will have an edge in today's game. Curtis Mead has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Curtis Mead has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 4.5% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the last 7 days.

Jon Singleton will have the handedness advantage against Taj Bradley today. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.9°, Jon Singleton has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 30.9° mark over the last two weeks. This year, the hardest ball Jon Singleton has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.4 mph (a reliable stat to measure power), checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Alex Jackson will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Alex Jackson will hold that advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .197 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Jackson has suffered from bad luck given the .084 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .281. Alex Jackson's 94.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 78th percentile this year.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.