Tampa Bay @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Dylan Carlson is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Last season, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 24.4°. Despite posting a .250 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dylan Carlson has been unlucky given the .055 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .305.

Batting from the same side that Erick Fedde throws from, Yandy Diaz will be in a tough position in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yandy Diaz in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz's launch angle recently (-9° in the past week) is considerably worse than his 4° seasonal angle. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (-0.3°) is considerably lower than his 4.9° mark last year.

Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Victor Scott will have an advantage today. Victor Scott hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Victor Scott will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Victor Scott is very toolsy, placing in the 100th percentile in Sprint Speed at 30.37 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.322) suggests that Curtis Mead has been unlucky this year with his .278 actual wOBA. Curtis Mead grades out in the 80th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (46.1% rate since the start of last season). With a .340 BABIP since the start of last season, Curtis Mead is positioned in the 89th percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (25.6°) is considerably better than his 21.5° figure last season. Nolan Gorman's 17.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) is in the 97th percentile this year.

Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Matt Carpenter will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage today. Matt Carpenter's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 35.2% to 47.2%. Matt Carpenter has shown favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 78th percentile with a 2.07 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jose Siri has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 96.7-mph in the past 7 days. Jose Siri has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year's 94-mph figure. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.336) may lead us to conclude that Jose Siri has been unlucky this year with his .286 actual wOBA.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game. Last year, Paul Goldschmidt had an average launch angle of 12.6° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 16.3°. Paul Goldschmidt has been unlucky this year, putting up a .293 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .041 gap.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Christopher Morel has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 12.2% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past week. Over the last week, Christopher Morel's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.7-mph over the course of the season to 106.1-mph recently. Over the past 14 days, Christopher Morel has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 30.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.6°.

Alex Jackson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Jackson's true offensive ability to be a .278, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .097 difference between that figure and his actual .181 wOBA. Alex Jackson's 94.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to assess power) is in the 82nd percentile this year.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge today. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Lars Nootbaar has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season's 89.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Brandon Lowe has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.3-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.7-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Taj Bradley in today's game. Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Jose Caballero has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal average of 89.6-mph. Jose Caballero's launch angle in recent games (24.5° over the past 7 days) is a considerable increase over his 13.1° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game. Checking in at the 92nd percentile, Willson Contreras sports a .373 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Willson Contreras has compiled a .329 BABIP this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

Taylor Walls has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 2.8% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the last week's worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls's true offensive ability to be a .281, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .049 gap between that mark and his actual .232 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Brendan Donovan has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .316 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .337 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Tommy Pham is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Tommy Pham will hold that advantage today. There has been a significant improvement in Tommy Pham's launch angle from last season's 5.4° to 11.1° this season.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Over the past week, Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.2-mph over the course of the season to 89.5-mph lately. Masyn Winn has posted a .270 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Grading out in the 82nd percentile, Masyn Winn sports a .275 batting average this year.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Nolan Arenado will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 43.4% on the season to 62.5% in the past week's worth of games.

Ben Rortvedt will have the handedness advantage over Erick Fedde in today's matchup. By putting up a .354 BABIP this year, Ben Rortvedt has performed in the 91st percentile.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Kameron Misner has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 8 games.