Milwaukee @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Mitchell in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The 7th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Garrett Mitchell has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last 7 days. Garrett Mitchell has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph to 90.1-mph in the last week.

When starting against a left-handed starter this year, Jackson Chourio has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 13% of the time. The #1 venue in baseball for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Jackson Chourio will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Jackson Chourio's launch angle recently (2.2° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 6.4° seasonal mark.

The #1 ballpark in the majors for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best among every team on the slate today. Luis Garcia has been lucky this year, compiling a .330 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .017 deviation.

The #1 venue in baseball for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for William Contreras in today's game. William Contreras's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 9.4% on the season to 3.4% in the last two weeks. William Contreras has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .281 BA is a good deal higher than his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 10th-best hitter in the game when it comes to his BABIP skill. James Wood is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The 7th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Hitting from the opposite that Tobias Myers throws from, James Wood will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The 7th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. In the past week, Sal Frelick's 53.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.9%. In terms of plate discipline, Sal Frelick's ability is quite strong, putting up a 1.88 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 82nd percentile.

CJ Abrams is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. CJ Abrams will hold the platoon advantage over Tobias Myers in today's matchup. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Young will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Grading out in the 79th percentile, Jacob Young has put up a .324 BABIP this year.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Alex Call will hold that advantage in today's game. Alex Call has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96-mph average over the past week to his seasonal EV of 85.9-mph. In terms of plate discipline, Alex Call's talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.4 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 96th percentile.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. The switch-hitting Blake Perkins will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Mitchell Parker. Blake Perkins has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Blake Perkins has put up a .340 BABIP this year, placing in the 87th percentile.

Juan Yepez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Juan Yepez will hold that advantage in today's game. Posting a .329 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Juan Yepez is ranked in the 80th percentile. Placing in the 88th percentile, Juan Yepez has posted a .272 batting average since the start of last season.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Harold Ramirez is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Harold Ramirez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Harold Ramirez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Harold Ramirez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Willy Adames is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Willy Adames will have an edge in today's game. Willy Adames has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 104.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 93.3-mph.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. LaVictor Lipscomb has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and LaVictor Lipscomb will hold that advantage in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, LaVictor Lipscomb has been unlucky this year. His .211 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .227.

Rhys Hoskins is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Rhys Hoskins will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitchell Parker today. Rhys Hoskins has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.4-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 88-mph EV. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.8°, Rhys Hoskins has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 35.2° mark in the past 14 days.

Gary Sanchez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Hitting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Gary Sanchez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. This year, Gary Sanchez's 11.9% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 84th percentile among his peers.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Keibert Ruiz will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Tobias Myers today. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage today.

The 7th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Travis Blankenhorn will hold the platoon advantage over Tobias Myers in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Travis Blankenhorn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Travis Blankenhorn's 95.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 88th percentile since the start of last season.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 89°. Andruw Monasterio will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitchell Parker in today's matchup. Andruw Monasterio has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Last year, Andruw Monasterio had an average launch angle of 10.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 17.3°. Despite posting a .243 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Andruw Monasterio has had some very poor luck given the .053 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .296.