Boston @ Texas Picks & Props

Globe Life Field projects as the #29 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -12° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. In today's matchup, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (89th percentile). The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

Globe Life Field projects as the #29 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 6th-deepest centerfield dimensions in the majors are found in Globe Life Field. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -12° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.

Josh Smith is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Josh Smith will have an edge in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Josh Smith will hold that advantage in today's matchup. With a .357 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Josh Smith is positioned in the 88th percentile.

Nick Sogard has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Nathaniel Lowe generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Given Jose Urena's large platoon split, Rafael Devers will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. Placing in the 98th percentile, Rafael Devers has notched a .404 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year. In notching a .300 batting average this year, Rafael Devers is ranked in the 94th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Given Jose Urena's large platoon split, Wilyer Abreu will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.4°, Wilyer Abreu has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 26.7° figure over the last 14 days. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 92nd percentile with a 19.4° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in baseball. Grading out in the 82nd percentile, Wilyer Abreu sports a .347 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Leody Taveras will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Leody Taveras has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 89.8-mph. Leody Taveras has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .277 rate is deflated compared to his .315 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. By putting up a .348 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Connor Wong is ranked in the 83rd percentile. Sporting a .349 BABIP this year, Connor Wong has performed in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Masataka Yoshida will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Urena in today's matchup... and even better, Urena has a large platoon split. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this year (9.2°) is considerably better than his 3.9° mark last season. In the past 14 days, Masataka Yoshida's 51.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.8%.

Given Jose Urena's large platoon split, Dominic Smith will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Dominic Smith's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10% up to 21.4%. Dominic Smith's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 16.9% to 21.6%. Dominic Smith's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, going from 21.6% on the season to 40% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Josh Jung will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, Josh Jung grades out in the 79th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .266. Since the start of last season, Josh Jung's 11.8% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 83rd percentile among his peers.

Given Jose Urena's large platoon split, David Hamilton will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. David Hamilton's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (21.1° in the last 14 days) is significantly better than his 12.3° seasonal mark. Launch angles in the range of -4° to 26° tend to become base hits at a high rate; David Hamilton and his 51.6% this year rank in the 99th percentile by this measure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Marcus Semien is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Marcus Semien will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Marcus Semien has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 87.5-mph figure.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Tyler O'Neill has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph EV. Tyler O'Neill's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (22.7°) is considerably higher than his 15.8° figure last year. In the last 14 days, Tyler O'Neill has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 26.6° compared to his seasonal mark of 22.7°.

Wyatt Langford's batting average skill is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Wyatt Langford will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Wyatt Langford has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 91-mph.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Adolis Garcia will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Adolis Garcia has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 94.8-mph over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.1°, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 22.3° angle in the past 7 days. Ceddanne Rafaela and his 18° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 93rd percentile, among the highest in MLB this year.

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jonah Heim will hold that advantage in today's game.

Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage today. Carson Kelly has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93-mph average to last season's 90.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Ezequiel Duran will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. By putting up a .327 BABIP this year, Ezequiel Duran has performed in the 80th percentile.