Miami @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The #5 venue in MLB for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Yandy Diaz will have the upper hand in today's game. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (0.1°) is considerably lower than his 4.9° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Siri will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Jose Siri has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last season's 94-mph EV. Jose Siri has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 102.6-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 96.7-mph.

Trevor Rogers will hold the platoon advantage against Richie Palacios today. Richie Palacios pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Richie Palacios will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.326) implies that Richie Palacios has been unlucky this year with his .307 actual wOBA. Richie Palacios has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, ranking in the 90th percentile with a 1.56 K/BB rate.

Alex Jackson will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Alex Jackson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.3-mph to 92.6-mph in the past week. Despite posting a .184 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Jackson has been unlucky given the .096 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .280. This year, Alex Jackson's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 81st percentile at 94.6 mph.

Jonah Bride is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field. Jonah Bride has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .192 figure is quite a bit lower than his .240 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Otto Lopez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Otto Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Otto Lopez has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Otto Lopez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .252 rate is deflated compared to his .306 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Xavier Edwards has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Xavier Edwards has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Xavier Edwards has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 88.2-mph figure. Xavier Edwards's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, going from 54.2% on the season to 67.9% over the past 14 days.

Nick Gordon will hold the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game.

Emmanuel Rivera has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.298) implies that Emmanuel Rivera has suffered from bad luck this year with his .262 actual wOBA. The standard deviation of Emmanuel Rivera's launch angle this year (25.8°) is in the 76th percentile. A low deviation like this tends to lead to a higher rate of hits on balls in play.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Jake Burger is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Jake Burger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jake Burger has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 11.1% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last week. Jake Burger has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Trevor Rogers will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Lowe in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game. The Barrel% of Brandon Lowe has significantly improved, with an increase from 10.7% last year to 15.8% this season.

The 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Christopher Morel will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Christopher Morel has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.3-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 89.7-mph EV.

Jose Caballero is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Caballero will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Jose Caballero's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.4%. In notching a .327 BABIP this year, Jose Caballero grades out in the 81st percentile.

Trevor Rogers will have the handedness advantage over Ben Rortvedt in today's matchup. Ben Rortvedt may have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage today. Grading out in the 89th percentile, Ben Rortvedt sports a .352 BABIP this year.

Despite posting a .220 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nick Fortes has had some very poor luck given the .049 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .269.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today's matchup. Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jesus Sanchez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph mark.

As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Vidal Brujan will get to bat from his better side against Taj Bradley in this game. Vidal Brujan has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest RF fences in the majors. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls's true offensive skill to be a .280, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .050 disparity between that mark and his actual .230 wOBA.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.