Texas @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Josh Smith is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Josh Smith will have the handedness advantage against Lance Lynn in today's game. Josh Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Josh Smith has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 27.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nathaniel Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Lance Lynn in today's matchup. Nathaniel Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 13.9% on the season to 28.6% over the past 7 days. Nathaniel Lowe has displayed good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 88th percentile with a 1.68 K/BB rate.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game. Paul Goldschmidt has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.5% seasonal rate to 20.8% over the past two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Hitters such as Willson Contreras with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Max Scherzer who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Batting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Among all parks, Busch Stadium's RF dimensions are the 2nd-deepest. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Corey Seager in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of the day at 93°. Hitting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand today. The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Leody Taveras's batting average skill is projected to be in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. In the past 14 days, Leody Taveras's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.8-mph over the course of the season to 94.7-mph lately. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Leody Taveras has had bad variance on his side this year. His .278 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage in today's game. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (26.1°) is quite a bit better than his 21.5° angle last year. Nolan Gorman's 17.3% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) grades out in the 97th percentile this year.

Wyatt Langford's batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wyatt Langford is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Wyatt Langford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 93.1-mph in the past week's worth of games. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.7°, Wyatt Langford has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 21.2° mark in the last two weeks.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Adolis Garcia has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 97.2-mph over the last 7 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Adolis Garcia's true offensive ability to be a .323, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .036 deviation between that mark and his actual .287 wOBA.

Alec Burleson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Batting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today's matchup. Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Marcus Semien ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Marcus Semien has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph to 95-mph over the last week. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.351) implies that Marcus Semien has had some very poor luck this year with his .314 actual wOBA.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Matt Carpenter will hold the platoon advantage over Max Scherzer in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage in today's game. As it relates to plate discipline, Matt Carpenter's ability is quite good, sporting a 2.07 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 78th percentile.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Nolan Arenado has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph to 95.3-mph in the past 7 days.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Masyn Winn has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal mark of 86.8-mph. Using Statcast data, Masyn Winn ranks in the 78th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .269.

Josh Jung's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Using Statcast data, Josh Jung ranks in the 79th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .266. Josh Jung's 12% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) is in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Jonah Heim has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 90.8-mph.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Batting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Brandon Crawford will have an advantage in today's matchup. Brandon Crawford hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Crawford will hold that advantage today. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Brandon Crawford has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .258 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .290.