Miami @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 5th-worst venue in baseball for right-handed base hits. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Hitting from the same side that Edward Cabrera throws from, Yandy Diaz encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (0.1°) is quite a bit worse than his 4.9° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Jeffrey Springs. Xavier Edwards has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Xavier Edwards has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 91.1-mph over the last two weeks.

Nick Gordon has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jesus Sanchez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph EV. In the last two weeks, Jesus Sanchez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.5-mph over the course of the season to 102.2-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Bryan De La Cruz will have the upper hand in today's game. Bryan De La Cruz has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Bryan De La Cruz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.9-mph average to last season's 92.4-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today. Jose Siri has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year's 94-mph average. Over the last two weeks, Jose Siri's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.7-mph over the course of the season to 102.6-mph recently.

Vidal Brujan has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Richie Palacios will hold the platoon advantage over Edward Cabrera in today's matchup. Richie Palacios will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP. Richie Palacios pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Richie Palacios will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the past two weeks, Richie Palacios's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 93.4-mph recently.

Emmanuel Rivera has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Hitting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Emmanuel Rivera will have the upper hand today. Emmanuel Rivera has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.297) may lead us to conclude that Emmanuel Rivera has been unlucky this year with his .259 actual wOBA. The standard deviation of Emmanuel Rivera's launch angle this year (25.8°) is in the 76th percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher BABIP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Otto Lopez will hold the platoon advantage against Jeffrey Springs in today's matchup. Otto Lopez has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.306) implies that Otto Lopez has experienced some negative variance this year with his .252 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jake Burger is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Jake Burger will have the handedness advantage against Jeffrey Springs today. Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jake Burger has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 11.1% seasonal rate to 17.4% in the past two weeks.

Jonah Bride is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. In the majors, Tropicana Field's LF fences are the 6th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Jonah Bride will have an edge in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.294) provides evidence that Jonah Bride has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .236 actual wOBA.

Jose Caballero is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Caballero will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.2-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph recently. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 45.4% on the season to 55.6% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Christopher Morel is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Christopher Morel has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 89.7-mph average.

Among all stadiums, Tropicana Field's RF fences are the 5th-shallowest. Ben Rortvedt will hold the platoon advantage over Edward Cabrera in today's matchup. Ben Rortvedt is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's game. Posting a .352 BABIP this year, Ben Rortvedt grades out in the 89th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Edward Cabrera today. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

In the majors, Tropicana Field's LF fences are the 6th-shallowest. Nick Fortes will have the handedness advantage over Jeffrey Springs in today's game. Despite posting a .220 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nick Fortes has experienced some negative variance given the .049 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .269.

Among all stadiums, Tropicana Field's RF fences are the 5th-shallowest. Taylor Walls will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal mark of 16.8°, Taylor Walls has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-7°) over the last 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls's true offensive talent to be a .280, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .055 difference between that mark and his actual .225 wOBA.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Josh Bell has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.