New York @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. The weather forecast calls for the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Tanner Houck will have the handedness advantage against Aaron Judge in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Houck's large platoon split. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Aaron Judge in today's matchup. Aaron Judge has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 96.2-mph dropping to 94.1-mph in the past 14 days.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. The weather forecast calls for the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Typically, bats like Juan Soto who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tanner Houck. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Juan Soto in today's game. Juan Soto has been lucky this year, putting up a .435 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .407 — a .028 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Masataka Yoshida has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today. Hitters such as Masataka Yoshida with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Carlos Rodon who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of every team in action today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output. The weather forecast calls for the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alex Verdugo in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo's 90.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 24th percentile this year. Posting a .289 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Alex Verdugo grades out in the 25th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in baseball. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Rafael Devers has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Rice in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Benjamin Rice will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. In the majors, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Connor Wong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's game. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have an advantage in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Jarren Duran is projected as the 12th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Austin Wells ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Austin Wells is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Given Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Austin Wells will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. Austin Wells has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Gleyber Torres ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Gleyber Torres has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.6% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last week.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. In the majors, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Rob Refsnyder will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. In the majors, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the handedness advantage over Carlos Rodon today. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

Anthony Volpe's BABIP ability is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. Anthony Volpe has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Over the last week, Anthony Volpe's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.6% up to 11.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. Romy Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon today. Romy Gonzalez has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Romy Gonzalez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Danny Jansen will have an advantage in today's game. Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's game.

The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Tanner Houck... and even better, Houck has a large platoon split. Oswaldo Cabrera hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

Given Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Trent Grisham hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Trent Grisham has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 94.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Compared to last season, Trent Grisham has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.7% to 22.4% this season. Trent Grisham's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 22.4% on the season to 30% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. In the majors, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Jamie Westbrook will have the handedness advantage over Carlos Rodon today. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jamie Westbrook will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

DJ LeMahieu has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Carlos Narvaez has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 6 games.