Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

When estimating his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. In the past 7 days, Elly De La Cruz's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.1% up to 22.2%. Elly De La Cruz has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 105.6-mph average in the past week to his seasonal mark of 94-mph.

Richie Palacios will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today's game. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Richie Palacios will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last two weeks, Richie Palacios's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 93.4-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jose Siri is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Jose Siri will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Spencer Steer ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Steer is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Spencer Steer will have an edge today. Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Over the last two weeks, Spencer Steer's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 99.6-mph in recent games.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jonathan India ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan India is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Jonathan India will have an edge in today's game. Jonathan India pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.3°, Jonathan India has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 35° mark in the last week's worth of games.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 11th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Jose Caballero will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.2-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph lately. Over the last 14 days, Jose Caballero's 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

In Major League Baseball, Tropicana Field's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's game. Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year, notching a .231 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .280 — a .049 difference.

Noelvi Marte will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Alexander in today's matchup. Noelvi Marte has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. In the last week, Noelvi Marte's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.9-mph over the course of the season to 94.9-mph lately. In the past week's worth of games, Noelvi Marte's 21.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.5%. Placing in the 95th percentile, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Last season, Isaac Paredes had an average launch angle of 18° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 21.5°.

When estimating his batting average ability, Amed Rosario is projected as the 17th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Amed Rosario is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Extreme flyball bats like Amed Rosario usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Amed Rosario will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Santiago Espinal's batting average ability is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Santiago Espinal will have an edge in today's matchup. Santiago Espinal has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Santiago Espinal has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .219 mark is considerably lower than his .250 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Tyler Stephenson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander today. Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Tyler Stephenson has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 92.6-mph over the last two weeks.

In Major League Baseball, Tropicana Field's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Ben Rortvedt will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Greene today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Placing in the 92nd percentile, Ben Rortvedt sports a .359 BABIP this year.

Batting from the opposite that Tyler Alexander throws from, Stuart Fairchild will have an advantage in today's game. Stuart Fairchild pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Stuart Fairchild's launch angle this year (19°) is a significant increase over his 14.1° angle last season. Ranking in the 93rd percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.12 ft/sec this year, Stuart Fairchild is notably toolsy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater as the 7th-best hitter in the league when estimating his BABIP ability. Austin Slater will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander today. Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Austin Slater's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 45.2% to 55.4%. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Austin Slater has had some very poor luck this year. His .255 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .303.

Austin Wynns will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander in today's matchup. Austin Wynns has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Austin Wynns has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 24.7 ft/sec to 25.49 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.