San Diego @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 19th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. This year, Jurickson Profar has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst stadium in the league for right-handed base hits. Jurickson Profar will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Jurickson Profar's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 47.9% on the season to 26.9% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst stadium in the league for right-handed base hits. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Xander Bogaerts in today's game. Xander Bogaerts has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 14.9% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Xander Bogaerts has compiled a .268 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 11th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Ha-seong Kim ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Ha-seong Kim will have an edge in today's matchup. Ha-seong Kim has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 91.2-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 88.2-mph figure. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.257) suggests that Ha-seong Kim has had bad variance on his side this year with his .225 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 7th-shallowest. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the past 14 days, Jackson Merrill's 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.9%. Utilizing Statcast data, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 94th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .289.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). LaVictor Lipscomb has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and LaVictor Lipscomb will hold that advantage today. LaVictor Lipscomb has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 91.2-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 86.1-mph EV. Over the last week, LaVictor Lipscomb's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 8.9%.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). James Wood is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 7th-shallowest. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, James Wood will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 78th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, CJ Abrams will have an advantage in today's game. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Jesse Winker is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 7th-shallowest. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jesse Winker will hold the platoon advantage against Matt Waldron in today's matchup.

Nationals Park projects as the #28 field in the majors for lefty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the same side that Mitchell Parker throws from, Luis Arraez faces a tough challenge in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86.6-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 83.8-mph in the past week's worth of games. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 89.6-mph average last season has fallen off to 87.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jacob Young will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jacob Young has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .254 figure is quite a bit lower than his .272 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 7th-shallowest. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jake Cronenworth's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 99.6-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Lane Thomas is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Lane Thomas will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Mitchell Parker throws from, Manny Machado will have an edge today. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 46% on the season to 61.9% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's RF fences are the 7th-shallowest. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Luis Garcia will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Waldron in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Luis Garcia will hold that advantage today.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate. Luis Campusano will have the handedness advantage against Mitchell Parker in today's matchup.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate. The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Matt Waldron. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Keibert Ruiz will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Keibert Ruiz's launch angle this season (19.8°) is considerably better than his 15.1° angle last season.

Juan Yepez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Juan Yepez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the past 7 days, Juan Yepez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.3% up to 22.2%. In the past week, Juan Yepez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 86.2-mph over the course of the season to 95-mph of late.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Higashioka will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitchell Parker in today's game. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 17.5% to 25.6%. Kyle Higashioka's 12.1% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) is in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Riley Adams has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Riley Adams will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, Riley Adams has an average exit velocity of 89.7 mph, which is one of the best in Major League Baseball at the 75th percentile. Riley Adams grades out in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (47.9% rate since the start of last season).

Donovan Solano has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.