Miami @ Houston Picks & Props

The #9 ballpark in the majors for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 90.8-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 81-mph over the past two weeks.

The #9 ballpark in the majors for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Yainer Diaz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences today. Over the past 7 days, Yainer Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the league. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 8th-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage today. In the past week's worth of games, Yordan Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14% up to 21.4%.

The #9 ballpark in the majors for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Jeremy Pena has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph dropping to 85.3-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 8th-worst among every team playing today. Jon Singleton will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jon Singleton's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, decreasing from 12.7% on the season to 8.3% in the last 7 days. This year, the hardest ball Jon Singleton has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.4 mph (a reliable metric to evaluate power), placing in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. In the last week's worth of games, Bryan De La Cruz's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.7% up to 26.7%. Bryan De La Cruz has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.7-mph mark. Bryan De La Cruz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (18.7°) is quite a bit better than his 12.3° angle last season.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Burger is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Jake Burger pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jake Burger has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.9-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 93.9-mph. Despite posting a .265 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has had some very poor luck given the .059 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

In MLB, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Nick Fortes has been unlucky this year, notching a .202 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .270 — a .068 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Chas McCormick will have an edge in today's matchup. The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 8th-worst among every team playing today. Chas McCormick will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. As it relates to his batting average, Chas McCormick has suffered from bad luck this year. His .204 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .230.

Jake Meyers's BABIP skill is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In MLB, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Jake Meyers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers in today's game. The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 8th-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Jesus Sanchez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ronel Blanco in today's game. Jesus Sanchez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the past week, Jesus Sanchez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.2% up to 23.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in the league. Xavier Edwards has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs lately, hitting balls between 23° and 34° 21.1% of the time over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Josh Bell is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Josh Bell has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Josh Bell has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last week's worth of games. In the past 14 days, Josh Bell has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 23.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.8°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Alex Bregman will have the upper hand in today's game. The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 8th-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nick Gordon will hold the platoon advantage over Ronel Blanco in today's game. The standard deviation of Nick Gordon's launch angle this year (23.8°) is in the 98th percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher rate of hits on balls in play.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in the league. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Vidal Brujan will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Ronel Blanco in this game.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average ability is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Mauricio Dubon will have the handedness advantage over Trevor Rogers in today's game. The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 8th-worst among every team playing today. Mauricio Dubon will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Mauricio Dubon's launch angle this season (14.1°) is considerably better than his 9.7° angle last season.

Joey Loperfido has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.