Boston @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Batting from the same side that Frankie Montas throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have a disadvantage in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.331) suggests that Tyler O'Neill has been very fortunate this year with his .368 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 4th-best batter in the league when it comes to his BABIP skill. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Nick Pivetta.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage over Frankie Montas in today's game. Masataka Yoshida has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jarren Duran in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, notching a .353 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .023 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The #9 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF fences in MLB. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the past 7 days, Ceddanne Rafaela's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 107.9-mph in recent games.

The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Will Benson will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Will Benson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Will Benson has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 13.3% seasonal rate to 25% over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Connor Wong is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. The #9 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF fences in MLB. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 17th-best hitter in baseball. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's game.

The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage over Frankie Montas in today's game. David Hamilton's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 52.6% on the season to 40% in the past week.

The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage today. Over the past week, Dominic Smith's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.4% up to 18.2%. Dominic Smith's launch angle recently (37° in the past 7 days) is a considerable increase over his 12.7° seasonal angle.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jonathan India ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The #9 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF fences in MLB. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jonathan India will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Nick Martini will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Nick Martini will hold that advantage in today's game. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Nick Martini ranks in the 89th percentile with a 19.3° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in the league.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Jake Fraley is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Jake Fraley will have an advantage today. Jake Fraley pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jeimer Candelario will hold that advantage today.

Enmanuel Valdez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Enmanuel Valdez has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 13% to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 96°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Santiago Espinal has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Santiago Espinal will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Santiago Espinal has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph EV.

T.J. Friedl is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. The #9 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). T.J. Friedl will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta in today's game. T.J. Friedl pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Spencer Steer ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Steer is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The #9 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The #9 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Luke Maile pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Luke Maile will hold that advantage in today's game. Luke Maile's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 20% to 24.5%.