LIVE top 8th Jun 20
AZ 4 +127 o8.5
WAS 2 -138 u8.5
LIVE top 7th Jun 20
SEA 3 +112 o8.5
CLE 5 -121 u8.5
LIVE top 7th Jun 20
TB 2 +121 o8.0
MIN 2 -132 u8.0
LIVE top 3rd Jun 20
HOU 1 -169 o9.0
CHW 0 +155 u9.0
LAD -199 o11.5
COL +181 u11.5
KC -139 o7.5
OAK +129 u7.5
BAL +144 o8.5
NYY -157 u8.5
SF -108 o9.0
STL -100 u9.0
MIL -104 o8.5
SD -104 u8.5
MLBN, Bally Sports Network, NESN

Boston @ Tampa Bay props

Tropicana Field

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

David Hamilton Total Hits Props • Boston

D. Hamilton
second base 2B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
+1000
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
+1000
Projection Rating

David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot today. David Hamilton has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

David Hamilton

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.6
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.6

David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot today. David Hamilton has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Ben Rortvedt Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

B. Rortvedt
catcher C • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
+450
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
+450
Projection Rating

Ben Rortvedt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Ben Rortvedt will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In terms of plate discipline, Ben Rortvedt's skill is quite impressive, posting a 1.77 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 85th percentile.

Ben Rortvedt

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.6
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.6

Ben Rortvedt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Ben Rortvedt will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In terms of plate discipline, Ben Rortvedt's skill is quite impressive, posting a 1.77 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 85th percentile.

Brandon Lowe Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

B. Lowe
second base 2B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+330
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+330
Projection Rating

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today. Since the start of last season, Brandon Lowe's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to study power) ranks in the 91st percentile at 95.4 mph.

Brandon Lowe

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today. Since the start of last season, Brandon Lowe's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to study power) ranks in the 91st percentile at 95.4 mph.

Rafael Devers Total Hits Props • Boston

R. Devers
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
+280
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
+280
Projection Rating

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Tropicana Field. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Rafael Devers finds himself in the 86th percentile for hitting ability.

Rafael Devers

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Tropicana Field. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Rafael Devers finds himself in the 86th percentile for hitting ability.

Yandy Díaz Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

Y. Díaz
third base 3B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
+240
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
+240
Projection Rating

When estimating his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 12th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Yandy Diaz will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Yandy Diaz has experienced some negative variance this year. His .300 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .348.

Yandy Díaz

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

When estimating his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 12th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Yandy Diaz will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Yandy Diaz has experienced some negative variance this year. His .300 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .348.

Vaughn Grissom Total Hits Props • Boston

V. Grissom
second base 2B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+260
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+260
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Vaughn Grissom has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Vaughn Grissom has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .228 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

Vaughn Grissom

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Vaughn Grissom has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Vaughn Grissom has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .228 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

Isaac Paredes Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

I. Paredes
third base 3B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+255
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+255
Projection Rating

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (44.4% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Isaac Paredes tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 99th percentile with a 22.1° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in baseball.

Isaac Paredes

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (44.4% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Isaac Paredes tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 99th percentile with a 22.1° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in baseball.

Connor Wong Total Hits Props • Boston

C. Wong
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-108
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-108
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences in the league. In the last 14 days, Connor Wong has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .386. Connor Wong's maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to evaluate power) has been 113.6 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 79th percentile.

Connor Wong

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences in the league. In the last 14 days, Connor Wong has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .386. Connor Wong's maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to evaluate power) has been 113.6 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 79th percentile.

Wilyer Abreu Total Hits Props • Boston

W. Abreu
center outfield CF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
+104
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
+104
Projection Rating

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. The shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Tropicana Field. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu's footspeed has improved this year. His 26.74 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.52 ft/sec now. Wilyer Abreu's 91.2-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in the league since the start of last season: 86th percentile.

Wilyer Abreu

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. The shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Tropicana Field. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu's footspeed has improved this year. His 26.74 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.52 ft/sec now. Wilyer Abreu's 91.2-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in the league since the start of last season: 86th percentile.

Jarren Duran Total Hits Props • Boston

J. Duran
center outfield CF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-145
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-145
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has put up a .342 BABIP this year, placing in the 85th percentile.

Jarren Duran

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has put up a .342 BABIP this year, placing in the 85th percentile.

Garrett Cooper Total Hits Props • Boston

G. Cooper
first base 1B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Garrett Cooper's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Garrett Cooper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Garrett Cooper has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 26.35 ft/sec to 26.84 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). In terms of his batting average, Garrett Cooper has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .250 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .268. Garrett Cooper's 94.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to study power) grades out in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.

Garrett Cooper

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Garrett Cooper's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Garrett Cooper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Garrett Cooper has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 26.35 ft/sec to 26.84 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). In terms of his batting average, Garrett Cooper has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .250 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .268. Garrett Cooper's 94.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to study power) grades out in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.

Ceddanne Rafaela Total Hits Props • Boston

C. Rafaela
center outfield CF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ranking in the 91st percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.96 ft/sec this year, Ceddanne Rafaela is quite athletic.

Ceddanne Rafaela

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ranking in the 91st percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.96 ft/sec this year, Ceddanne Rafaela is quite athletic.

Rob Refsnyder Total Hits Props • Boston

R. Refsnyder
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-135
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-135
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences in the league. Over the last 14 days, Rob Refsnyder has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .413. Using Statcast data, Rob Refsnyder grades out in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .342.

Rob Refsnyder

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences in the league. Over the last 14 days, Rob Refsnyder has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .413. Using Statcast data, Rob Refsnyder grades out in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .342.

Tyler O'Neill Total Hits Props • Boston

T. O'Neill
right outfield RF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-135
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-135
Projection Rating

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences in the league. Tyler O'Neill's 12.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 86th percentile since the start of last season. Tyler O'Neill has done a strong job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 16.7° mark is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (78th percentile).

Tyler O'Neill

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences in the league. Tyler O'Neill's 12.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 86th percentile since the start of last season. Tyler O'Neill has done a strong job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 16.7° mark is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (78th percentile).

Richie Palacios Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

R. Palacios
left outfield LF • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-137
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-137
Projection Rating

Richie Palacios will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Richie Palacios pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Richie Palacios will hold that advantage today. Ranking in the 79th percentile, Richie Palacios has posted a .331 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season. Richie Palacios has compiled a .259 batting average since the start of last season, placing in the 77th percentile.

Richie Palacios

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Richie Palacios will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Richie Palacios pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Richie Palacios will hold that advantage today. Ranking in the 79th percentile, Richie Palacios has posted a .331 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season. Richie Palacios has compiled a .259 batting average since the start of last season, placing in the 77th percentile.

Randy Arozarena Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

R. Arozarena
left outfield LF • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Projection Rating

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Randy Arozarena will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Randy Arozarena's true offensive skill to be a .338, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .081 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .257 wOBA. Using Statcast metrics, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 88th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .356.

Randy Arozarena

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Randy Arozarena will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Randy Arozarena's true offensive skill to be a .338, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .081 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .257 wOBA. Using Statcast metrics, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 88th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .356.

Jonathan Aranda Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

J. Aranda
second base 2B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-157
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-157
Projection Rating

The shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Tropicana Field. Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Jonathan Aranda will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Jonathan Aranda

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Tropicana Field. Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Jonathan Aranda will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Dominic Smith Total Hits Props • Boston

D. Smith
first base 1B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-145
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-145
Projection Rating

Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today's matchup. Dominic Smith has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Dominic Smith has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .298 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316. Dominic Smith has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 15.9° angle is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (85th percentile).

Dominic Smith

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today's matchup. Dominic Smith has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Dominic Smith has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .298 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316. Dominic Smith has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 15.9° angle is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (85th percentile).

Jose Caballero Total Hits Props • Tampa Bay

J. Caballero
second base 2B • Tampa Bay
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-155
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-155
Projection Rating

Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Caballero's 20.9° launch angle (an advanced metric to assess a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the highest in baseball: 93rd percentile. Jose Caballero has compiled a .318 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile.

Jose Caballero

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Caballero's 20.9° launch angle (an advanced metric to assess a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the highest in baseball: 93rd percentile. Jose Caballero has compiled a .318 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

Pages Related to This Topic

About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management and ROI Guide

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