Cleveland @ Toronto Picks & Props

Oscar Gonzalez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year. The #3 field in the majors for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Chris Bassitt will hold the platoon advantage against Oscar Gonzalez today. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams playing today. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Oscar Gonzalez in today's matchup.

The #3 stadium in the majors for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams playing today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Steven Kwan in today's matchup. Steven Kwan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 47.5% on the season to 26.7% over the past week. This year, Steven Kwan's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 0th percentile at 85.4 mph.

The #3 stadium in the majors for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams playing today. Toronto's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Jose Ramirez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Ramirez today. Jose Ramirez's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (-2.2° in the last 14 days) is considerably worse than his 8.7° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Kevin Kiermaier will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Bibee in today's game. The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kevin Kiermaier can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Kevin Kiermaier will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Kole Calhoun is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Kole Calhoun will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. Kole Calhoun has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 86.6-mph. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.304) suggests that Kole Calhoun has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .272 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Alejandro Kirk will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky this year, notching a .297 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .042 disparity. As it relates to plate discipline, Alejandro Kirk's ability is quite good, putting up a 1.21 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 96th percentile.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 4th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.389) provides evidence that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been unlucky this year with his .340 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Gabriel Arias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95-mph over the course of the season to 100.5-mph lately. Gabriel Arias has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .198 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Myles Straw in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.

Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. Bo Naylor will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup. Bo Naylor has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 5.8% seasonal rate to 11.1% over the last 7 days. Bo Naylor has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 91.5-mph in the last 14 days. Bo Naylor's launch angle lately (28.6° over the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 19.1° seasonal figure.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Among all parks, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest. George Springer will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the past week, George Springer's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.5% up to 50%.

Danny Jansen has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.