Chicago @ Toronto Picks & Props

Rogers Centre profiles as the #26 field in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Javier Assad will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Whit Merrifield in today's game. Whit Merrifield's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 91.2-mph mark last year has fallen off to 89.1-mph. Over the past week, Whit Merrifield's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16%. Whit Merrifield has been lucky this year, putting up a .336 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .023 gap.

Rogers Centre profiles as the #26 field in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Javier Assad will have the handedness advantage over George Springer in today's game. George Springer's launch angle recently (6.6° over the last week) is significantly worse than his 11° seasonal mark. George Springer's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (7.4°) is considerably worse than his 11.5° mark last season.

Rogers Centre profiles as the #26 field in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Berrios will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nico Hoerner in today's game. Nico Hoerner's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 86.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 82.3-mph over the past 7 days. In the last week, Nico Hoerner has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Ian Happ is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Ian Happ has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 9.4% seasonal rate to 21.2% over the last two weeks. Ian Happ has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 93.5-mph.

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. Cody Bellinger will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios today. Cody Bellinger hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the last week, Cody Bellinger's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.8%. Cody Bellinger has posted a .387 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 96th percentile.

Mike Tauchman is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Mike Tauchman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in today's matchup. Mike Tauchman has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal average of 93.1-mph. In the past week, Mike Tauchman's 60% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.1%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Seiya Suzuki has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 9.2% to 19%. Seiya Suzuki's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 42.8% to 49.8%. Seiya Suzuki's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 49.8% on the season to 57.1% over the past two weeks.

Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage against Javier Assad in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the entire game. Daulton Varsho will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Daulton Varsho has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 7.3% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 7 days.

Christopher Morel's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Christopher Morel has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 94.2-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. In the last 7 days, Christopher Morel's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.9%. Christopher Morel has posted a .374 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Matt Chapman will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Matt Chapman's launch angle recently (33° in the last 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 16.5° seasonal angle. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Matt Chapman is positioned in the 82nd percentile for offensive skills.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brandon Belt ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Belt is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Brandon Belt will have the handedness advantage against Javier Assad in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Brandon Belt is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game.

Yan Gomes hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Madrigal as the 20th-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average ability. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Nick Madrigal's launch angle this year (4.1°) is quite a bit higher than his -0.4° angle last season. Nick Madrigal's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (5.2° over the past 14 days) is significantly higher than his 0.2° seasonal angle. Nick Madrigal has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .273 mark is a good deal lower than his .296 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Dansby Swanson has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 91.4-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.4-mph figure. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Dansby Swanson's 53.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Alejandro Kirk will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky this year, putting up a .314 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .025 deviation. Sporting a 1.13 K/BB rate this year, Alejandro Kirk has displayed good plate discipline, checking in at the 98th percentile.

Cavan Biggio is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. Cavan Biggio will have the handedness advantage against Javier Assad in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Cavan Biggio is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the entire game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Cavan Biggio will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.