Toronto @ Cleveland Picks & Props

Noah Syndergaard will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Whit Merrifield in today's game. Out of every team today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians. Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Whit Merrifield's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 85.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 82-mph in the last week. Whit Merrifield's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 91.2-mph mark last year has fallen to 89-mph.

Will Brennan is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup. Will Brennan hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays. This year, Will Brennan's 3% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 8th percentile among his peers. Ranked in the 5th percentile, Will Brennan's average exit velocity of 85.8 mph ranks among the lowest in the league this year.

This year, Oscar Gonzalez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 16% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher. Alek Manoah will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Oscar Gonzalez today. Oscar Gonzalez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 93rd percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Oscar Gonzalez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 90.1 mph to 85.8 mph. Oscar Gonzalez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (-4.3° in the last two weeks) is a significant dropoff from his 6.2° seasonal figure.

In the past two weeks' worth of games, Steven Kwan's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (2.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 7.1°. Steven Kwan's 85.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 0th percentile this year.

Noah Syndergaard will have the handedness advantage over George Springer in today's matchup. Out of every team today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for George Springer in today's matchup. George Springer's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (7.7°) is significantly lower than his 11.5° mark last season.

Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Daulton Varsho will have the handedness advantage over Noah Syndergaard in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this year (19.1°) is significantly better than his 14.5° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Andres Gimenez will have the handedness advantage against Alek Manoah in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Santiago Espinal's batting average talent is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Santiago Espinal has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today. With a 1.61 K/BB rate this year, Santiago Espinal has demonstrated good plate discipline, ranking in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Belt in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Belt is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Brandon Belt will have the handedness advantage against Noah Syndergaard in today's matchup.

Myles Straw's BABIP skill is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Myles Straw will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Matt Chapman's launch angle lately (30.3° in the past 7 days) is a considerable increase over his 16.2° seasonal mark.

Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Compared to last season, Danny Jansen has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 17.6% to 21.5% this season. As it relates to his batting average, Danny Jansen has had bad variance on his side this year. His .218 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

Gabriel Arias has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Cam Gallagher has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Bo Naylor has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.