Toronto @ Cleveland Picks & Props

16% of the time that Oscar Gonzalez has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pinch hit for. Kevin Gausman will have the handedness advantage over Oscar Gonzalez in today's matchup. Oscar Gonzalez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 93rd percentile) and but may find it hard to clear the game's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game. In the past 7 days, Oscar Gonzalez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 90.1 mph to 85.8 mph. Oscar Gonzalez's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (-4.3° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is significantly lower than his 6.2° seasonal figure.

Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians. Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Whit Merrifield's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 85.2-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 81.6-mph in the last week. Whit Merrifield's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 91.2-mph figure last year has fallen off to 89-mph. Whit Merrifield's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, decreasing from 45% on the season to 39% in the past two weeks.

Steven Kwan's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (2.1° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a considerable dropoff from his 7.1° seasonal mark. Steven Kwan has been cold of late, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) in the last week's worth of games.

Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians. George Springer will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. George Springer's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 91.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 88.6-mph over the past two weeks. George Springer's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (7.6°) is significantly lower than his 11.5° angle last year. George Springer's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, going from 44.9% on the season to 30.3% over the last 14 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jose Ramirez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Myles Straw in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Myles Straw will hold that advantage today. Myles Straw has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.7-mph average over the last week to his seasonal figure of 85.6-mph.

Andres Gimenez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Andres Gimenez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Andres Gimenez will hold that advantage today.

Danny Jansen is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Danny Jansen will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Allen in today's game... and moreover, Allen has a large platoon split. Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today. Danny Jansen has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 19% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Gabriel Arias has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Gabriel Arias will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last week, Gabriel Arias's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this season (19.1°) is significantly higher than his 14.5° mark last season. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.1°, Daulton Varsho has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27° figure in the past two weeks. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.325) may lead us to conclude that Daulton Varsho has suffered from bad luck this year with his .284 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Alejandro Kirk will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Allen today... and even more favorably, Allen has a large platoon split. Alejandro Kirk has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. As it relates to plate discipline, Alejandro Kirk's skill is quite strong, sporting a 1.17 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 97th percentile.

The 3rd-shallowest left field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Progressive Field. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Cam Gallagher will hold that advantage in today's game. Cam Gallagher's speed has increased this season. His 24.88 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.4 ft/sec now. Cam Gallagher has been unlucky this year, compiling a .155 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .250 — a .095 disparity.

Will Brennan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Will Brennan will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman today. Will Brennan will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Will Brennan has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 3% seasonal rate to 10% over the past week.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Matt Chapman will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Allen in today's game... and the cherry on top, Allen has a large platoon split. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.4°, Matt Chapman has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 34.6° figure in the last week.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Brandon Belt has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Bo Naylor has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.