Toronto @ Cleveland Picks & Props

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 12.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Gavin Williams will hold the platoon advantage over Whit Merrifield in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians. Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. From last season to this one, Whit Merrifield's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 91.2 mph to 88.9 mph.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage against Gavin Williams in today's game. Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this year (19°) is a considerable increase over his 14.5° angle last year. Compared to his seasonal average of 19°, Daulton Varsho has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 32° figure in the past 7 days.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 7th-best for hitting on the schedule today. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 12.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Oscar Gonzalez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards the league's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Oscar Gonzalez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (-1.4° in the past two weeks) is considerably lower than his 6.5° seasonal figure. Oscar Gonzalez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 13.5% to 9.6%.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 7th-best for hitting on the schedule today. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 12.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Hyun Jin Ryu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Kwan in today's matchup. Over the past 14 days, Steven Kwan's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 84.9 mph to 81.9 mph. Steven Kwan's launch angle in recent games (-5.4° over the past week) is a significant dropoff from his 11.3° seasonal angle.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 7th-best for hitting on the schedule today. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 12.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers.

Andres Gimenez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Andres Gimenez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Andres Gimenez will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Gabriel Arias will hold the platoon advantage against Hyun Jin Ryu today. Gabriel Arias has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Gabriel Arias will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Cavan Biggio will hold the platoon advantage over Gavin Williams in today's matchup. The Barrel% of Cavan Biggio has significantly improved, with an increase from 7% last year to 12.7% this year. Cavan Biggio has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.6-mph average to last year's 89.3-mph average. Cavan Biggio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 20.3% to 27.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Belt in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Belt is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Brandon Belt will hold the platoon advantage over Gavin Williams in today's matchup. Brandon Belt pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. George Springer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.7% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. As it relates to his batting average, George Springer has suffered from bad luck this year. His .252 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .282.

Danny Jansen is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Danny Jansen has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 22.7% over the last two weeks. Danny Jansen's launch angle of late (22.5° in the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 19.1° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Myles Straw in the 87th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Myles Straw will have the handedness advantage over Hyun Jin Ryu today. Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Myles Straw will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Matt Chapman has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 12.9% rate last season to 18.2% this year. Matt Chapman has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.6-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 96-mph. Posting a .361 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Matt Chapman is ranked in the 86th percentile for offensive skills.

David Fry has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the highest humidity of the day at 84%. David Fry will hold the platoon advantage against Hyun Jin Ryu in today's matchup. David Fry pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

The 3rd-shallowest left field fences in the majors are found in Progressive Field. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Cam Gallagher will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hyun Jin Ryu in today's matchup. Cam Gallagher will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Will Brennan has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Alejandro Kirk has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Bo Naylor has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.