Tampa Bay @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Siri has made significant gains with his Barrel%, improving his 6.3% rate last season to 15.3% this year. Last season, Jose Siri had an average launch angle of 11.7° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 21.1°. In notching a .353 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jose Siri is ranked in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wander Franco as the 12th-best hitter in the game when estimating his batting average skill. Wander Franco is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for homers. In the past week's worth of games, Wander Franco's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.3% up to 16.7%. Wander Franco's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 15.1% on the season to 33.3% over the last week.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Randy Arozarena has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 7.9% rate last year to 13.9% this year. Randy Arozarena has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last season's 89.8-mph average. Based on Statcast data, Randy Arozarena is in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .369.

Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage today. Over the last 14 days, Martin Maldonado has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.7% to 14.3%. Martin Maldonado has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 88-mph average. Despite posting a .246 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Martin Maldonado has had some very poor luck given the .031 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .277.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Harold Ramirez is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Harold Ramirez's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (5.6°) is significantly higher than his 2.3° angle last season. Harold Ramirez has notched a .293 batting average this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for homers. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Littell in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 15th-best batter in the game. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. Kyle Tucker will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Littell today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, Kyle Tucker grades out in the 98th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .395.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Brandon Bielak will have the handedness advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Bielak in today's game. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Brandon Lowe has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 11.4% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last week.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Isaac Paredes's launch angle this season (21.2°) is considerably better than his 15.5° angle last season. Isaac Paredes's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (24.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 17.3° seasonal mark. Isaac Paredes has put up a .389 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Alex Bregman has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 5.8% seasonal rate to 12.8% in the past 14 days.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jose Altuve ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (39% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Altuve will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Jose Altuve has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 8.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest left field fences in the majors. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's game. Jeremy Pena has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.4-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.2-mph EV.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Chas McCormick ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Chas McCormick will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Chas McCormick has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.9-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 95.1-mph. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (23.1°) is a significant increase over his 18.6° angle last season. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (32.5° over the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 23.1° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 78th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Mauricio Dubon will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Mauricio Dubon has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .263 mark is a fair amount lower than his .286 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jose Abreu's batting average skill is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Abreu will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Jose Abreu's launch angle lately (19.8° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 11° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Abreu's true offensive skill to be a .344, implying that he this year given the .051 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .293 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Luke Raley is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Bielak in today's matchup. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Luke Raley can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Luke Raley has recorded a .394 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 96th percentile.

Rene Pinto has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Christian Bethancourt has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.