Tampa Bay @ Houston Picks & Props

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for dingers. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Taj Bradley in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the league. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley today. Kyle Tucker will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. By putting up a .396 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Kyle Tucker is ranked in the 98th percentile for offensive skills.

When estimating his batting average talent, Wander Franco is projected as the 11th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wander Franco is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for dingers. Wander Franco's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 11.6% to 14.6%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.285) may lead us to conclude that Wander Franco has had bad variance on his side this year with his .264 actual batting average.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Isaac Paredes's launch angle this year (21.2°) is quite a bit better than his 15.5° figure last season. Isaac Paredes's launch angle recently (25.4° in the past 14 days) is considerably better than his 21.2° seasonal angle. Sporting a .377 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Isaac Paredes is positioned in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Barrel% of Jose Siri has significantly improved, with an increase from 6.3% last year to 15.5% this year. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Jose Siri has posted a .357 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. The Barrel% of Randy Arozarena has significantly improved, with an increase from 7.9% last year to 13.9% this season. Randy Arozarena has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last year's 89.8-mph mark. Using Statcast metrics, Randy Arozarena grades out in the 92nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .369.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Altuve will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jose Altuve has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last season's 91.1-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Yainer Diaz pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the past 14 days, Yainer Diaz's 58.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.6%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.291) provides evidence that Yainer Diaz this year with his .262 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game. Brandon Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 13.2% to 17.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manuel Margot in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Manuel Margot has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.1-mph average to last year's 87.9-mph figure. Manuel Margot's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 6.9% to 13.8%. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Manuel Margot has had some very poor luck this year. His .295 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .321.

Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week, Martin Maldonado's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.8% up to 40%. Martin Maldonado has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.2-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 88-mph figure. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.7°, Martin Maldonado has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 31.5° angle in the past week.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Harold Ramirez is projected as the 18th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Harold Ramirez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (5.6°) is significantly higher than his 2.3° angle last year. By putting up a .292 batting average this year, Harold Ramirez is positioned in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 9th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his batting average skill. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Yandy Diaz has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season's 92-mph mark. Yandy Diaz has notched a .302 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In notching a .403 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Yandy Diaz is ranked in the 98th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jeremy Pena has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 91.7-mph in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Luke Raley is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Luke Raley will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Luke Raley is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the entire game. Placing in the 96th percentile, Luke Raley has put up a .393 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Chas McCormick will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. In the past 14 days, Chas McCormick's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.1-mph over the course of the season to 100.9-mph in recent games. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (23.1°) is significantly better than his 18.6° figure last year. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (32.6° in the past 14 days) is significantly higher than his 23.1° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Alex Bregman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Alex Bregman has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5.9% seasonal rate to 11.9% in the last two weeks.

Corey Julks pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Corey Julks will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Corey Julks's launch angle recently (34.5° in the last week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 17.1° seasonal angle. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.314) implies that Corey Julks has suffered from bad luck this year with his .295 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jose Abreu will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Abreu's true offensive ability to be a .340, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .055 gap between that mark and his actual .285 wOBA.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Christian Bethancourt has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.