Texas @ Houston Picks & Props

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching. Jon Gray will hold the platoon advantage against Mauricio Dubon in today's game. In today's matchup, Mauricio Dubon is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (91st percentile). Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching. Brandon Bielak will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Marcus Semien in today's game. Marcus Semien will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Marcus Semien has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .272 BA is a fair amount higher than his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Corey Julks is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. Corey Julks pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Corey Julks will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Over the past week, Corey Julks's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.1% up to 13.3%. Corey Julks's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 51.8% on the season to 61.9% over the past two weeks.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Martin Maldonado will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Chas McCormick is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season. Chas McCormick will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Adolis Garcia pulls many of his flyballs (32.9% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the last two weeks, Adolis Garcia has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 32.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 16°. Adolis Garcia has posted a .367 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 90th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Ezequiel Duran pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Josh Jung is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.

Yainer Diaz's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Brad Miller will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Bielak in today's game. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Brad Miller is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch all game.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Kyle Tucker is projected as the 13th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage over Jon Gray today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jose Abreu is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Jose Abreu will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage today.

Jonah Heim has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Leody Taveras's BABIP skill is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Leody Taveras has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Leody Taveras's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 41.4% to 48.1%. Using Statcast data, Leody Taveras is in the 81st percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .353. Grading out in the 83rd percentile, Leody Taveras sits with a .279 batting average this year.

Travis Jankowski is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year. Travis Jankowski will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Bielak today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Travis Jankowski is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game. Travis Jankowski has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Nathaniel Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Josh H. Smith has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.