St. Louis @ Chicago Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 7th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jameson Taillon will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.257) may lead us to conclude that Nolan Arenado has been very fortunate this year with his .286 actual batting average.

Nico Hoerner has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Christopher Morel will hold the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among every team in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Dylan Carlson ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 16.5% to 20.6%. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, going from 20.6% on the season to 57.1% over the past 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Ian Happ will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. When it comes to plate discipline, Ian Happ's skill is quite strong, posting a 1.61 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Jameson Taillon in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 76th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Jameson Taillon today. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Miguel Amaya will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup. Miguel Amaya pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Miguel Amaya will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Miguel Amaya has been hot of late, cruising to a .357 wOBA in the last week's worth of games.

Jameson Taillon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Goldschmidt today. Paul Goldschmidt has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 5th-deepest RF fences today. Paul Goldschmidt will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Paul Goldschmidt's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 92.5-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 85.1-mph in the last two weeks. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 16% to 12.1%.

Brendan Donovan will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Patrick Wisdom will hold the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup. Patrick Wisdom pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Patrick Wisdom will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. The Barrel% of Patrick Wisdom has significantly improved, with an increase from 14.5% last year to 19.7% this year.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dansby Swanson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Dansby Swanson will have the handedness advantage over Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup. Dansby Swanson will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Paul DeJong pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.

Cody Bellinger is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Cody Bellinger will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Posting a .385 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Cody Bellinger has performed in the 95th percentile. With a .313 batting average this year, Cody Bellinger is ranked in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Seiya Suzuki will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Wrigley Field has the 7th-shallowest LF fences in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. In the past week, Ivan Herrera has displayed impressive power, recording a a 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power). Over the past 7 days, Ivan Herrera's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 71.4% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Wrigley Field has the 7th-shallowest LF fences in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Jordan Walker has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 92.6-mph.

Alec Burleson is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Jameson Taillon today. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Trey Mancini will hold the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's game. Trey Mancini will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Despite posting a .283 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trey Mancini given the .041 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

Wrigley Field has the 7th-shallowest LF fences in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. Yan Gomes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Yan Gomes will hold that advantage in today's game. Yan Gomes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 15.4% to 20.9%.

Willson Contreras has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Tyler O'Neill has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.