New York @ Boston Picks & Props

17% of the time that Jarren Duran has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Jarren Duran has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days. Jarren Duran's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 83.9-mph in the last week. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 11.9% on the season to 0% in the past week.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Max Scherzer will have the handedness advantage against Justin Turner in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Justin Turner are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Scherzer. Justin Turner's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.9-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 86.4-mph in the past 14 days. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.326) suggests that Justin Turner has had some very good luck this year with his .362 actual wOBA.

Jeff McNeil is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. James Paxton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeff McNeil in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest among every team on the slate today. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jeff McNeil today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brett Baty in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Brett Baty has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Brett Baty has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 8.2% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the last two weeks. Brett Baty has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .235 BA is a good deal lower than his .265 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Alex Verdugo's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 90.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 77.5-mph in the last week's worth of games. Alex Verdugo's launch angle in recent games (-9.8° in the past week) is a significant dropoff from his 7.6° seasonal mark. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Alex Verdugo ranks in just the 14th percentile with a 7.6° launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in baseball.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 91.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 84.8-mph over the last week. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.333) suggests that Masataka Yoshida has experienced some positive variance this year with his .382 actual wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Masataka Yoshida ranks in just the 3rd percentile with a 3.7° launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in the league.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. James Paxton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Nimmo in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest among every team on the slate today. Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, falling from 42.9% on the season to 27.3% over the past two weeks.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. In the majors, Fenway Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest among every team on the slate today. Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. With a .252 BABIP this year, Francisco Lindor has performed in the 10th percentile.

Adam Duvall is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Adam Duvall pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Adam Duvall will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Adam Duvall has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 93.6-mph.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage over Max Scherzer today. Triston Casas pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Triston Casas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Triston Casas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.4% up to 25%.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Luis Guillorme has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Luis Guillorme's launch angle this season (10.5°) is considerably higher than his 4.3° mark last year. Posting a 1.66 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Luis Guillorme has demonstrated good plate discipline, checking in at the 92nd percentile. Ranking in the 83rd percentile, Luis Guillorme has posted a .271 batting average since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Francisco Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's game. Francisco Alvarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Francisco Alvarez has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 13.5% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the past two weeks.

Daniel Vogelbach is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Daniel Vogelbach hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. This year, Daniel Vogelbach has an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph, which ranks among the best in Major League Baseball at the 79th percentile. Posting a 1.8 K/BB rate this year, Daniel Vogelbach has shown impressive plate discipline, placing in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Connor Wong's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Canha in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. In the majors, Fenway Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Mark Canha will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.6°, Mark Canha has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 20° angle in the last 7 days.

In the majors, Fenway Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate. Yu Chang will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Over the last week, Yu Chang's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.7-mph over the course of the season to 100.9-mph recently. Compared to last year, Yu Chang has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.4% to 17.8% this season.

DJ Stewart has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Tommy Pham has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Pete Alonso has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.