Baltimore @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.328) suggests that Jorge Mateo has had some very poor luck this year with his .271 actual wOBA. Jorge Mateo is remarkably toolsy, placing in the 99th percentile in Sprint Speed at 30.05 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 5th-worst stadium in the game for righty batting average. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Kyle Gibson will have the handedness advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's game. Typically, bats like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kyle Gibson. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense projects as the strongest among every team today.

Jordan Westburg's BABIP ability is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Westburg pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jordan Westburg has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 95.5-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. Tropicana Field has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences among all stadiums. Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Glasnow in today's game. Gunnar Henderson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.2-mph EV.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Colton Cowser is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tropicana Field has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences among all stadiums. Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Glasnow in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wander Franco as the 11th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average skill. Wander Franco is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Tropicana Field has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences among all stadiums. Wander Franco will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Wander Franco has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 92.3-mph in the past week's worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Tropicana Field has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences among all stadiums. Adley Rutschman has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.3% seasonal rate to 17.4% over the past 14 days. Adley Rutschman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13.7% to 20.6%.

Adam Frazier's batting average skill is projected to be in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tropicana Field has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences among all stadiums. Adam Frazier will hold the platoon advantage over Tyler Glasnow today. Adam Frazier has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 3.7% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past 7 days. Over the past two weeks, Adam Frazier has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 26.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.2°.

Francisco Mejia pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Francisco Mejia will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Over the last week, Francisco Mejia's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.5% up to 18.2%. Francisco Mejia's launch angle this year (19.1°) is a considerable increase over his 15.4° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Brandon Lowe generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Gibson. Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Aaron Hicks pulls many of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. In terms of plate discipline, Aaron Hicks's skill is quite strong, sporting a 1.78 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Luke Raley is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Luke Raley will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson in today's game. Luke Raley will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Over the past 14 days, Luke Raley has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 37° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.9°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Siri will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Jose Siri has made big improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.3% rate last year to 17.1% this year. Jose Siri's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 15.8% to 20.8%.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Anthony Santander has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 11.4% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the past two weeks. Anthony Santander has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.8-mph figure. Anthony Santander's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, going from 17.1% on the season to 23.1% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Hays in the 77th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Austin Hays is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Austin Hays has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 5.3% rate last year to 10.4% this year. Austin Hays's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 16.1% to 20.3%.

Ramon Urias has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.4°, Ramon Urias has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 56° figure in the last week. Placing in the 87th percentile, Ramon Urias has posted a .343 BABIP this year.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Randy Arozarena will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Randy Arozarena has made big improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 7.9% rate last season to 14.4% this year. Randy Arozarena's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93-mph now compared to just 89.8-mph then.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today. Taylor Walls's launch angle this year (19.9°) is a significant increase over his 16.4° angle last season.

Ryan O'Hearn has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.