Boston @ Chicago Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Christopher Morel will hold the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's matchup. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Christopher Morel will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ian Happ will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ian Happ has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, placing in the 88th percentile with a 1.58 K/BB rate.

Rafael Devers projects as the 18th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage against Marcus Stroman in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Miguel Amaya will have the handedness advantage over James Paxton in today's game. Miguel Amaya pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Miguel Amaya will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Justin Turner in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Justin Turner is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Extreme flyball hitters like Justin Turner usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Marcus Stroman. The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today.

This year, Jarren Duran has been pinch hit for in 15% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the past 14 days, Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 89.3 mph to 84.8 mph. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jarren Duran's true offensive talent to be a .328, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .052 difference between that figure and his actual .380 wOBA.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Trey Mancini will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's game. Trey Mancini will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Despite posting a .288 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trey Mancini has suffered from bad luck given the .034 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Over the last 14 days, Connor Wong has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.2% to 16.7%. In the last two weeks, Connor Wong has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 31.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 14.3°.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Kike Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.2% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Kike Hernandez's launch angle lately (24.3° in the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 16.7° seasonal figure. Kike Hernandez has been unlucky this year, notching a .268 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .044 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Wrigley Field as the 10th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Adam Duvall pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Adam Duvall are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Marcus Stroman. The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Seiya Suzuki will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's matchup. Seiya Suzuki will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Cody Bellinger will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. In the last week, Cody Bellinger's 50% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.4%. Sporting a .371 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Cody Bellinger is ranked in the 91st percentile.

Yan Gomes is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. The 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Yan Gomes will have the handedness advantage over James Paxton in today's game. Yan Gomes will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage against Marcus Stroman in today's game. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Triston Casas can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Triston Casas's launch angle of late (26.8° in the past two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 15° seasonal angle.

Nico Hoerner has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences today. Nico Hoerner's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 86.1-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 78.2-mph over the last 7 days. In the last 7 days, Nico Hoerner has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Wrigley Field as the 10th-best park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average. The 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Yu Chang has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .193 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .219 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Christian Arroyo's batting average skill is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense. The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Christian Arroyo has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial ability for batting average), placing in the 94th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score this year.

Typically, hitters like Masataka Yoshida who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Marcus Stroman. Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Masataka Yoshida has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 14 days. In the past 14 days, Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 92.2 mph to 82 mph. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle lately (-4.1° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 3° seasonal figure.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alex Verdugo in today's game. Alex Verdugo's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, going from 43.1% on the season to 29.6% in the past 14 days. Despite posting a .355 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Verdugo has been very fortunate given the .018 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .337. Alex Verdugo's 8.1° launch angle (an advanced stat to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in baseball: 15th percentile.