Boston @ Chicago Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. The #10 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

This year, Jarren Duran has been pinch hit for in 16% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 93.4-mph figure last year has dropped off to 89.3-mph. Despite posting a .379 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has been very fortunate given the .052 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

Wrigley Field ranks as the #10 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Jared Young will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup. Jared Young will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Ian Happ is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. Wrigley Field ranks as the #10 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.

Mike Tauchman is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. Wrigley Field ranks as the #10 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Mike Tauchman will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup.

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Wrigley Field ranks as the #10 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Cody Bellinger will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game.

The #10 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field. Among all parks, Wrigley Field's left field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Yu Chang's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14.4% to 20%.

The #10 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Adam Duvall's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (26.1°) is quite a bit better than his 20.7° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mastrobuoni in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Wrigley Field ranks as the #10 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Miles Mastrobuoni will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The #10 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.

Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner in today's game. Nico Hoerner has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences today. Nico Hoerner has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 83.6-mph over the past two weeks.

The #10 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Connor Wong pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Connor Wong's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (27.8° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 14.3° seasonal figure.

Kyle Hendricks will have the handedness advantage against Justin Turner in today's matchup. In today's matchup, Justin Turner is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.6% rate (79th percentile). Justin Turner will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Justin Turner has experienced some positive variance this year. His .360 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alex Verdugo in today's matchup. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Alex Verdugo's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.1%. Despite posting a .355 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Verdugo has been lucky given the .019 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .336. Alex Verdugo's 8.1° launch angle (an advanced standard to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in MLB: 15th percentile.

Wrigley Field ranks as the #10 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Tucker Barnhart will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game. Tucker Barnhart will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The #10 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field. Among all parks, Wrigley Field's left field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Yan Gomes will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Masataka Yoshida in today's game. Masataka Yoshida's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 88.9-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 85.2-mph in the last two weeks. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle of late (-0.3° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit lower than his 3° seasonal figure. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.335) may lead us to conclude that Masataka Yoshida has had positive variance on his side this year with his .380 actual wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Masataka Yoshida ranks in just the 1st percentile with a 3° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in the majors.

Christian Arroyo's batting average skill is projected to be in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #10 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.

Wrigley Field ranks as the #10 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Hendricks in today's game. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Triston Casas has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Wrigley Field has the 5th-deepest right field fences among all stadiums. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Rafael Devers in today's matchup. Over the last week, Rafael Devers's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.2%. By putting up a .261 BABIP this year, Rafael Devers is ranked in the 14th percentile.

Enrique Hernandez has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.