Atlanta @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The #3 stadium in MLB for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. Charlie Morton will hold the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Yandy Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-10.6°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 4.7°. Yandy Diaz has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .391 figure is quite a bit higher than his .372 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his batting average talent, Wander Franco is projected as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wander Franco is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The 4th-shallowest RF fences among all stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Wander Franco will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Eddie Rosario will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Glasnow in today's matchup. Eddie Rosario pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Eddie Rosario's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14.8% to 18.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Ozzie Albies has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.3-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 88.9-mph mark. Ozzie Albies's launch angle of late (24.7° in the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 15.3° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Austin Riley is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Austin Riley pulls many of his flyballs (32.9% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Austin Riley has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.2% to 15.4%. Over the past two weeks, Austin Riley's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.4-mph over the course of the season to 96.7-mph in recent games.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Matt Olson ranks as the 11th-best hitter in the majors. Matt Olson is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Matt Olson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Glasnow in today's game. Matt Olson pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Matt Olson has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 13.6% rate last season to 20.3% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Sean Murphy is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Sean Murphy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Sean Murphy has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 10.5% rate last year to 18.1% this season. Sean Murphy has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 97.7-mph in the last 14 days.

Over the last two weeks, Orlando Arcia's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph of late. Orlando Arcia has compiled a .293 batting average this year, placing in the 91st percentile.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage today. There has been a significant improvement in Isaac Paredes's launch angle from last season's 15.5° to 21.1° this year. With a .383 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Isaac Paredes is positioned in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Marcell Ozuna's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.3-mph over the course of the season to 104.1-mph of late. By putting up a .353 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Marcell Ozuna is ranked in the 81st percentile for offensive ability. Marcell Ozuna has recorded a .357 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today. Randy Arozarena has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 7.9% rate last season to 15.3% this season.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Brandon Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today's matchup. The Atlanta Braves have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today.

Jose Siri's BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Jose Siri will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Jose Siri has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 103.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 93.8-mph.

Harold Ramirez has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Michael Harris II has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Manuel Margot has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Christian Bethancourt has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.