Texas @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Kutter Crawford will hold the platoon advantage over Marcus Semien in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Marcus Semien tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. Marcus Semien will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. In the past week's worth of games, Marcus Semien's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Kutter Crawford will hold the platoon advantage against Josh Jung today. Josh Jung will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Josh Jung has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 12.1% seasonal rate to 20% over the past week. Despite posting a .347 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Josh Jung has had positive variance on his side given the .015 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Nathan Eovaldi will have the handedness advantage against Justin Turner today. Justin Turner's launch angle this year (14.7°) is quite a bit worse than his 18.6° angle last season. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Justin Turner has been lucky this year. His .355 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .327.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Kutter Crawford will have the handedness advantage over Adolis Garcia today. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Adolis Garcia in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Adolis Garcia's true offensive talent to be a .337, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .022 disparity between that mark and his actual .359 wOBA.

Ezequiel Duran is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Kutter Crawford will hold the platoon advantage over Ezequiel Duran in today's matchup. Ezequiel Duran will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ezequiel Duran's true offensive talent to be a .322, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .054 disparity between that figure and his actual .376 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for LHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 85°. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nathan Eovaldi in today's matchup. David Hamilton has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. David Hamilton will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for LHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 85°. Jonah Heim pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 8th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. In the last week, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.9% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for LHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 85°. Leody Taveras has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 8th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for LHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 85°. Robbie Grossman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.9% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 8th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Robbie Grossman has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a core ability for batting average), grading out in the 78th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score this year.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Verdugo's true offensive talent to be a .337, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .015 deviation between that figure and his actual .352 wOBA. Alex Verdugo's 8.2° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in baseball: 16th percentile.

Adam Duvall is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 85°. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Adam Duvall will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 85°. Connor Wong pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Connor Wong will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Connor Wong's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.9%.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. In the past week, Rafael Devers's 6.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.7%. In notching a .259 BABIP this year, Rafael Devers grades out in the 14th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for LHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 85°. Triston Casas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nathan Eovaldi in today's matchup. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Triston Casas will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for LHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. Travis Jankowski will have the handedness advantage over Kutter Crawford in today's game. Travis Jankowski has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 92.1-mph seasonal average has dropped to 85.4-mph over the last 7 days. Masataka Yoshida's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, decreasing from 36.1% on the season to 26.9% in the past two weeks. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Masataka Yoshida has had positive variance on his side this year. His .375 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .338. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Masataka Yoshida ranks in just the 3rd percentile with a 3.5° launch angle, which is one of the most groundball-inducing angles in baseball.

Christian Arroyo's batting average talent is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in MLB. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 83°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for RHB batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games today at 85°. Kike Hernandez pulls a lot of his flyballs (32.9% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Kike Hernandez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Kike Hernandez's launch angle lately (50° over the last 7 days) is a considerable increase over his 16.8° seasonal angle.

Jarren Duran has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Yu Chang has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Nathaniel Lowe has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Mitch Garver has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Corey Seager has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.