Texas @ Boston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in baseball for left-handed batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). David Hamilton will have the handedness advantage over Jon Gray in today's game. David Hamilton has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in baseball for left-handed batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jonah Heim pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Over the past week, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.9% up to 14.3%. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.4°, Jonah Heim has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 21.6° figure over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in baseball for left-handed batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Robbie Grossman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.9% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Robbie Grossman are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Robbie Grossman has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial ability for batting average), grading out in the 78th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score this year.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to worse offense. Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josh Jung in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in action today. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Josh Jung in today's matchup. Josh Jung has been lucky this year, notching a .351 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .020 discrepancy.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to worse offense. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers. Despite posting a .354 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Verdugo has been very fortunate given the .019 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335. Alex Verdugo's 8.2° launch angle (an advanced standard to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in baseball: 16th percentile.

Leody Taveras's BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in baseball for left-handed batting average. Leody Taveras has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Compared to last year, Leody Taveras has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 41.4% to 49.5% this season. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Leody Taveras's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.5%.

Ezequiel Duran's BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for RHB batting average. Ezequiel Duran pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Ezequiel Duran has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.9% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past 14 days. Ezequiel Duran has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Mitch Garver ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for RHB batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for RHB batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Justin Turner ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Justin Turner is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for RHB batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Justin Turner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Adolis Garcia is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for RHB batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Adolis Garcia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to worse offense. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers. Rafael Devers has compiled a .263 BABIP this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in baseball for left-handed batting average. Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage over Jon Gray in today's game. Triston Casas pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Triston Casas will hold that advantage today. Triston Casas has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 101.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.9-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in baseball for left-handed batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Travis Jankowski will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup. Travis Jankowski has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Travis Jankowski has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 85.9-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 83.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Arroyo in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences among all stadiums. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Christian Arroyo will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for RHB batting average. The weather report temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Adam Duvall pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Adam Duvall will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Adam Duvall's launch angle this season (27.2°) is quite a bit better than his 23.4° figure last year.

Corey Seager has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Masataka Yoshida has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Nathaniel Lowe has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Marcus Semien has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Jarren Duran has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.