Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The #1 park in the majors for suppressing batting average to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Bryce Harper will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Bryce Harper's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 91.6-mph seasonal average has decreased to 85.6-mph in the last two weeks. There has been a significant decline in Bryce Harper's launch angle from last season's 11.7° to 7.5° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the worst stadium in baseball for right-handed batting average. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Yonny Chirinos will hold the platoon advantage against Trea Turner in today's game. Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Trea Turner's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89.3-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 86.7-mph in the last week.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 20th-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Yonny Chirinos in today's matchup. Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Kyle Schwarber has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 15.8% seasonal rate to 23.5% over the past 7 days.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Isaac Paredes will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Isaac Paredes's launch angle this year (20.7°) is quite a bit better than his 15.5° angle last season.

When assessing his batting average talent, Wander Franco is projected as the 10th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wander Franco is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. In Major League Baseball, Tropicana Field's right field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Wander Franco will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Siri has made big gains with his Barrel%, upping his 6.3% rate last season to 17.7% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the best hitter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP talent. Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage against Yonny Chirinos in today's game. Brandon Marsh has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Brandon Marsh has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph figure. Sporting a .352 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Brandon Marsh is positioned in the 78th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today's game. Randy Arozarena has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, improving his 7.9% rate last year to 15.6% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manuel Margot in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Manuel Margot will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Manuel Margot has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.2-mph average to last season's 87.9-mph figure. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.335) implies that Manuel Margot has had bad variance on his side this year with his .306 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Alec Bohm has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Alec Bohm has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 90.9-mph. Compared to last year, Alec Bohm has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.2% to 17.1% this season. Alec Bohm's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, going from 42.3% on the season to 57.1% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Bryson Stott will hold the platoon advantage over Yonny Chirinos today. Bryson Stott has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Bryson Stott's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, going from 42.4% on the season to 56.5% in the past two weeks. Posting a .284 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Bryson Stott is positioned in the 88th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Brandon Lowe is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Luke Raley is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Luke Raley will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Luke Raley will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

In Major League Baseball, Tropicana Field's right field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Darick Hall will have the handedness advantage over Yonny Chirinos in today's matchup. Darick Hall's 14.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 95th percentile since the start of last season. Darick Hall's 91.7-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball since the start of last season: 92nd percentile.

In Major League Baseball, Tropicana Field's right field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Taylor Walls will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Taylor Walls's launch angle from last season's 16.4° to 21° this year. In the last 14 days, Taylor Walls has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 25.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 18.3°.

Francisco Mejia pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Francisco Mejia will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Francisco Mejia has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last year's 87-mph EV. Francisco Mejia's launch angle this year (19°) is considerably higher than his 15.4° mark last season.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Christian Bethancourt has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Harold Ramirez has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Yandy Diaz has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

J.T. Realmuto has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Nick Castellanos has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.