Texas @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest among all the teams today. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Adolis Garcia today. Adolis Garcia has been lucky this year, compiling a .358 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .335 — a .023 disparity.

Christian Arroyo is penciled in 7th in the lineup today. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Dane Dunning will have the handedness advantage against Christian Arroyo in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Christian Arroyo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%. Christian Arroyo's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86.8-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 82-mph over the past two weeks.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Dane Dunning will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Turner today. Justin Turner's launch angle this year (14.6°) is a considerable dropoff from his 18.6° figure last season. Justin Turner has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .353 rate is quite a bit higher than his .329 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for righty batting average. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will lose the platoon advantage while batting from his worse side (0) today against Kaleb Ort Leody Taveras has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The #2 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dane Dunning in today's game. David Hamilton has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. David Hamilton will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for righty batting average. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The switch-hitting Robbie Grossman will bat from his weak side (0) today against Kaleb Ort Robbie Grossman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.9% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Robbie Grossman has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial talent for batting average), grading out in the 78th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score this year.

The #2 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Triston Casas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dane Dunning in today's game. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Triston Casas will hold that advantage in today's game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. With a .263 BABIP this year, Rafael Devers grades out in the 18th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for righty batting average. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Kaleb Ort will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Garver in today's game. Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for righty batting average. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Kaleb Ort will hold the platoon advantage against Ezequiel Duran in today's game. Ezequiel Duran pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for righty batting average. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage today.

Alex Verdugo has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Masataka Yoshida has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Jarren Duran has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Marcus Semien has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Corey Seager has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Nathaniel Lowe has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Josh Jung has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.