Houston @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Miles Mikolas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Abreu in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Abreu in today's matchup. Jose Abreu has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week. Jose Abreu's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, falling from 12.9% on the season to 0% over the last week. Sporting a .276 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jose Abreu is ranked in the 10th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Carlson in the 78th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last 7 days, Dylan Carlson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 22.2%. In the last week, Dylan Carlson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph of late.

Miles Mikolas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alex Bregman in today's game. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 97th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Alex Bregman's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 90.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 86.7-mph over the past 14 days. Ranking in the 18th percentile, Alex Bregman has put up a .261 BABIP this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Paul Goldschmidt ranks as the 12th-best hitter in baseball. Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Paul Goldschmidt will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year's 90.8-mph average.

Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game. Long-balls are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in Major League Baseball. Miles Mikolas will have the handedness advantage against Jeremy Pena in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jeremy Pena in today's game. Jeremy Pena has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Extreme flyball batters like Willson Contreras generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristian Javier. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game.

Miles Mikolas will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve in today's matchup. In today's game, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.4% rate (98th percentile). Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Altuve in today's matchup. Jose Altuve has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week. Compared to his seasonal mark of 11.3°, Jose Altuve has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4°) in the past two weeks.

Tommy Edman's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Tommy Edman will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. As it relates to his batting average, Tommy Edman has been unlucky this year. His .242 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .264. Posting a 1.83 K/BB rate this year, Tommy Edman has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 76th percentile.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Martin Maldonado has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 88.9-mph. When it comes to his batting average, Martin Maldonado has been unlucky this year. His .178 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .201.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Nolan Arenado has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 92.5-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Nolan Arenado's launch angle of late (22.6° in the last week) is a significant increase over his 17.3° seasonal angle.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage against Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the entire game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 89°. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme flyball batters like Jordan Walker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristian Javier. Jordan Walker will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the entire game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today's game. When it comes to his batting average, Alec Burleson has experienced some negative variance this year. His .219 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .280.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Brendan Donovan will hold the platoon advantage over Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen all game.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 89°. In the last week's worth of games, Corey Julks's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90-mph over the course of the season to 96.8-mph in recent games. Corey Julks's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 16.7% on the season to 23.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Corey Julks ranks in the 85th percentile with a 17.5° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in baseball. Grading out in the 76th percentile, Corey Julks has notched a .329 BABIP this year.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 89°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Paul DeJong has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 27.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 18.5°. Paul DeJong's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 13.5% to 17.6%.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Bligh Madris will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's game. Bligh Madris has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .229 figure is deflated compared to his .287 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Yainer Diaz has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Chas McCormick has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Kyle Tucker has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.