Cincinnati @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Long-balls are generally less common at ballparks with deep fences, and Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 7th-deepest in MLB. Luke Weaver will hold the platoon advantage against Austin Hays in today's matchup. Austin Hays's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 91.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 88-mph over the past 14 days. Austin Hays's launch angle recently (-0.4° over the past week) is significantly worse than his 12.6° seasonal figure. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.267) suggests that Austin Hays has been very fortunate this year with his .318 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 5th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The switch-hitting Anthony Santander will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Luke Weaver When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Anthony Santander has been lucky this year. His .356 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .314.

The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Luke Weaver Adley Rutschman has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's deepest LF fences today. Adley Rutschman has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week. In the last week, Adley Rutschman's 12.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.2%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jake Fraley ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Fraley is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Jake Fraley will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson today. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Jake Fraley has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.2% seasonal rate to 25% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Gunnar Henderson will hold the platoon advantage over Luke Weaver today. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gunnar Henderson stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Gunnar Henderson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Gunnar Henderson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.8-mph average.

Aaron Hicks pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Aaron Hicks will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Will Benson will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson in today's game. Will Benson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore's 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Will Benson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Over the last 14 days, Will Benson has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 14% to 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest RF fences today. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Ranking in the 84th percentile, Tyler Stephenson sports a .341 BABIP this year.

Matt McLain's BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.5°, Matt McLain has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 32.8° angle in the past 7 days.

When assessing his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Elly De La Cruz pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. In the past 7 days, Elly De La Cruz's maximum exit velocity (a good measure of recent form and raw power) has been 116.6-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in baseball.

Adam Frazier will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luke Weaver today. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Adam Frazier can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Adam Frazier will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Adam Frazier has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 90-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 87.1-mph. Compared to last year, Adam Frazier has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.4% to 17.5% this season.

The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jorge Mateo will hold that advantage in today's game. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Mateo this year. His .272 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .332.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Jonathan India is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Over the past week, Jonathan India's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.4-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Spencer Steer has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 6.5% seasonal rate to 13.8% over the last 14 days. Spencer Steer has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90-mph figure.

Joey Votto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Joey Votto has been hot recently, notching a a 25% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) over the last 7 days. Joey Votto's 95.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 88th percentile since the start of last season. Joey Votto and his 18.9° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 95th percentile, among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

TJ Friedl has gone over 0.5 in 10 of his last 10 games.

Nick Senzel has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Cedric Mullins has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Jordan Westburg has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Ryan O'Hearn has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.