Houston @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Paul Goldschmidt has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will be challenged by the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Paul Goldschmidt has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 13.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week. In the past 7 days, Paul Goldschmidt's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen all game. Brendan Donovan will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Brendan Donovan has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .335 rate is a good deal lower than his .366 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 4th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado's launch angle this season (17.4°) is significantly lower than his 21.7° figure last year. Nolan Arenado has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .268 rate is inflated compared to his .239 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 86°. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Lars Nootbaar will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground among all parks — generally bad for home runs. Tommy Edman has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last two weeks. Tommy Edman's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 90.6-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 74.1-mph in the past week's worth of games. Tommy Edman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 16.7% on the season to 20% in the past week. Tommy Edman has notched a .260 BABIP this year, checking in at the 17th percentile.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Martin Maldonado will have the handedness advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's game. Martin Maldonado has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 88.9-mph. Martin Maldonado has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .178 figure is deflated compared to his .202 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jordan Montgomery will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Tucker in today's matchup. Kyle Tucker will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Kyle Tucker's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 93.4-mph figure last year has dropped off to 91.4-mph. Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, going from 17.2% on the season to 10.3% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 86°. Jose Altuve will hold the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery today. Jose Altuve has recorded a .380 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Alex Bregman will have the handedness advantage over Jordan Montgomery in today's game. Over the past week, Alex Bregman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.3% up to 11.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Yainer Diaz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Chas McCormick will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery today. In the last week's worth of games, Chas McCormick's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.4-mph over the course of the season to 99.1-mph recently. Chas McCormick's launch angle this year (16.3°) is significantly better than his 12.6° mark last season. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (25.4° over the past 14 days) is significantly better than his 21.4° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jose Abreu is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Jose Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup. Jose Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Jeremy Pena will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's game. Jeremy Pena has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 87.6-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Carlson in the 78th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Framber Valdez. Dylan Carlson will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Dylan Carlson has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 9.3% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Jordan Walker will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Corey Julks will hold the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery in today's game. Corey Julks's 17.4° launch angle (an advanced standard to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in baseball: 85th percentile. Corey Julks has put up a .329 BABIP this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Paul DeJong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Paul DeJong tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Paul DeJong will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Paul DeJong's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 13.5% to 18.2%.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 87°. Andrew Knizner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. Andrew Knizner will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Andrew Knizner has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 3.5% rate last season to 12.3% this year. Andrew Knizner has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season's 87.5-mph EV.

Bligh Madris has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.