Boston @ Chicago Picks & Props

Jarren Duran has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 16% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for mound aces. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Jarren Duran has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 6.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 14 days. Jarren Duran has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .286 figure is a good deal higher than his .263 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Jake Burger in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Jake Burger will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton today. Jake Burger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Jackson Frazier will have the handedness advantage over James Paxton in today's matchup. Jackson Frazier will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Connor Wong's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (18.2° in the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 14.2° seasonal mark.

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for mound aces. James Paxton will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Benintendi today. Andrew Benintendi's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.1-mph figure last season has dropped off to 87.9-mph. Andrew Benintendi's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 87.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 82.7-mph over the past 7 days.

THE BAT X projects Luis Robert in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Luis Robert is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°.

THE BAT X projects Justin Turner in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Justin Turner is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Justin Turner has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Elvis Andrus will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's matchup. Elvis Andrus will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for mound aces. Tim Anderson's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 83.4-mph in the last 14 days. Tim Anderson's launch angle lately (-11.9° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit worse than his 0.3° seasonal figure. Tim Anderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 14.8% to 7.7%. Tim Anderson has recorded a .256 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 4th percentile.

Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. The switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against James Paxton. Yasmani Grandal will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 5th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for long-balls. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage against Lance Lynn in today's matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for mound aces. Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Masataka Yoshida has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .373 figure is a fair amount higher than his .339 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Eloy Jimenez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Eloy Jimenez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Eloy Jimenez will hold the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's matchup.

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Adam Duvall's launch angle of late (30.8° over the last two weeks) is a significant increase over his 25° seasonal figure.

THE BAT X projects Rafael Devers in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 5th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for long-balls. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°.

THE BAT X projects Christian Arroyo in the 78th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Christian Arroyo has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7.5% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last two weeks.

THE BAT X projects Andrew Vaughn in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Andrew Vaughn is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Andrew Vaughn will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's game.

Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #5 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 86°. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage against Lance Lynn today. Triston Casas pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Triston Casas has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 14.1% seasonal rate to 26.7% over the last week.

Rob Refsnyder has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Enrique Hernandez has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.