Boston @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weatherman calls for the 3rd-coldest temperature of all games today at 57°. Austin Hays has a high pull rate on his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's deepest LF fences today. Austin Hays has been lucky this year, compiling a .380 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .062 difference. Austin Hays has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 7.7° angle is among the lowest in MLB since the start of last season (18th percentile).

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weatherman calls for the 4th-coldest temperature of all games today at 58°. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense projects as the 2nd-best of the day. Rafael Devers's speed has declined this season. His 25.47 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.95 ft/sec now. Rafael Devers has been lucky with his batting average since the start of last season; his .290 BA is quite a bit higher than his .267 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Masataka Yoshida as the 17th-best hitter in the game when assessing his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 park in the majors for left-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 park in the majors for left-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer today. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Triston Casas has been unlucky with his batting average since the start of last season; his .167 mark is quite a bit lower than his .199 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Triston Casas has displayed favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 92nd percentile with a 1.56 K/BB rate.

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weatherman calls for the 4th-coldest temperature of all games today at 58°. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense projects as the 2nd-best of the day.

THE BAT X projects Gunnar Henderson in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 park in the majors for left-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gunnar Henderson can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate today. Gunnar Henderson will hold the home field advantage today.

THE BAT X projects Adley Rutschman in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system. Adley Rutschman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 75th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate today.

THE BAT X projects Justin Turner in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Justin Turner is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system. Justin Turner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Justin Turner has posted a .271 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 75th percentile (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system. The switch-hitting Anthony Santander will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Chris Sale... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate today. Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Boston (#3-worst of all teams today).

THE BAT X projects Adam Frazier in the 77th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 park in the majors for left-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Adam Frazier can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate today. Adam Frazier will have the benefit of the home field advantage today.

Kike Hernandez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system. Kike Hernandez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#1-worst on the slate today). Kike Hernandez's 16.7° launch angle is among the highest in the game: 84th percentile.

THE BAT X projects Jarren Duran in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 park in the majors for left-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer today. Jarren Duran hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Jarren Duran has been hot of late, cruising to a .412 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Ramon Urias is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system. Ramon Urias will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Sale today... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split. Ramon Urias has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system.

THE BAT X projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Ryan Mountcastle is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system. Ryan Mountcastle will have the handedness advantage against Chris Sale today... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split. Ryan Mountcastle has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today.

THE BAT X projects Cedric Mullins II in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 park in the majors for left-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins II has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Cedric Mullins II has a high pull rate on his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system. The standard deviation of Yu Chang's launch angle since the start of last season (25.2°) is in the 82nd percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher batting average on balls in play.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #7 field in the majors for right-handed BABIP, via THE BAT projection system. James McCann will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale today... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split. James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst on the slate today. James McCann will possess the home field advantage today.

Jorge Mateo has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.