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Atlanta @ Washington preview

Nationals Park

Last Meeting ( Apr 13, 2014 ) Washington 2, Atlanta 10

It might be too early to think about pennant races, but it will be hard to avoid doing so when the National League East-leading Washington Nationals host the second-place Atlanta Braves for a four-game series starting Thursday. The Nationals enter the key series leading the division by 1 1/2 games over the Braves, who are coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of Philadelphia. Atlanta leads the season series 5-1 and has won 18 of 25 meetings over the past two seasons.

The Braves outscored the Nationals 32-16 over a pair of three-game series in the first two weekends of the season, but they're hitting the road for an 11-game road trip after being outscored 21-8 in three games against the Phillies. The Nationals saw a red-hot stretch give way to a four-game skid last weekend but bounced back to win two one-run games against Houston and have claimed 12 of their last 18. When Washington has enjoyed success against Atlanta it often has been with right-hander Jordan Zimmermann on the mound — he is 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA in eight careers starts versus the Braves.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, MLB Network, SportSouth (Atlanta), MASN (Washington)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Gavin Floyd (1-2, 2.98 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Jordan Zimmermann (5-3, 2.98)

Floyd endured one of his most difficult outings of the season Saturday against the Angels, but he still managed to labor through 6 1/3 innings and limit Los Angeles to four runs in a no-decision. The 31-year-old has pitched better than his record indicates, allowing three or fewer earned runs in seven of his eight starts and just one earned run on four occasions. Floyd is 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA in six games (four starts) against Washington.

The first two months of the season were a rocky ride for Zimmermann, but he has turned things around his last three times out. The 28-year-old has allowed one run and 10 hits in 25 innings over his last three starts, including a two-hit shutout at San Diego on June 8. He was a tough-luck loser in his last outing, allowing just one run and three hits over eight innings in a 1-0 loss at St. Louis.

WALK-OFFS

1. Braves C Evan Gattis is batting .391 with eight home runs and 20 RBIs during a 17-game hitting streak, the longest active streak in the majors. He is 1-for-5 with a homer versus Zimmermann.

2. Nationals CF Denard Span is 17-for-38 with four doubles against Floyd but he is hitless in his last five at-bats against the veteran.

3. Washington is 32-2 when scoring four or more runs.

PREDICTION: Nationals 3, Braves 2

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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