It was a 1-2 SU day to begin the week for me, and with some afternoon games, I’m looking at all the late pitcher props and finding some late value to add to the card.
Here are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers for Wednesday, August 20.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 20
Misiorowski u5.5 strikeouts (-140)- Misiorowski o1.5 walks allowed (-110)
Alcantara u5.5 hits allowed (+100)
Brewers vs. Cubs
The angle: The rookie might not have a long enough leash to get 6+ Ks
The move: Jacob Misiorowski Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 at bet365)
There is a little juice here, but Jacob Misiorowski might not even throw 65 pitches today vs. a team that has the fifth-lowest K% over the last two weeks.
The rookie is on a tight leash and only threw 54 pitches and four outs in his last start, which was his first after missing two weeks with a lower-body injury.
The Milwaukee Brewers don’t need to push him, and his command might be acting up after throwing just 28 pitches for strikes. Command was an issue in the minors, and he has avoided issues until now. He was also only going 12 outs before missing time with the leg injury/bruise.
THE BAT is projecting 69 pitches and 4.63 strikeouts. If the juice is too much, wait for the flip to 4.5 and get +110 or better.
Brewers vs. Cubs
The angle: The rookie's command issues are starting to show
The move: Jacob Misiorowski Over 1.5 walks allowed (-110 at DraftKings)
Let’s double-dip on the rookie. I know I’m projecting a low pitch total for the electric right-hander, but he is projecting for 1.97 walks on 69 pitches today, per THE BAT.
I’ve always loved his walk props, and after a rough start in his return to the mound, I’m happy to bet on a lack of command again today. This was a prospect who had 81 walks across 142 innings at Triple-A.
The Chicago Cubs are also one of the most difficult BB% matchups in baseball, and a first start on a new mound at Wrigley is also working against the rookie. I’d be thrilled with another start like his last, where he had three walks and three Ks over 54 pitches.
Cardinals vs. Marlins
The angle: It's a getaway day for the Cards, and Sandy's splits are in his favor
The move: Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 hits allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
Sandy Alcantara has had an up-and-down season, but he has a great spot today indoors at home and vs. a St. Louis Cardinals team that is off to Tampa Bay following this game.
At home, the Miami Marlins starter has allowed fewer than a hit per inning, and the Cardinals aren’t a powerhouse of a lineup.
Alcantara is coming off one of his best starts of the year, allowing just two hits in Fenway, and THE BAT is projecting 5.5 hits allowed on 93 pitches. His Over 4.5 Ks at -105 or better also looks good with a projection of 4.86.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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