After a 3-0 win in the first leg of their CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal matchup, the United States will travel to Trinidad & Tobago tonight looking to clinch their spot in next summer’s Copa America tournament.
T&T nearly pulled off a miraculous result, holding the Americans without a goal through 80 minutes despite being a man down for more than half of that. But three goals in a span of eight minutes undid all their hard work, and now they’ll have to figure out a way to overcome the aggregate gap and repeat their upset of 2017.
That American loss on T&T soil cost them a spot in the 2018 World Cup, and it’s not lost on the players who will take the pitch. They’ll be buoyed by the fact that it’s the hosts who will have the pressure to chase the game, and they’ll be happy to see more open spaces to work in.
Can Trinidad & Tobago repeat history, or will the Americans cruise into the next round? We discuss that in our Trinidad & Tobago vs United States picks and predictions for Monday, November 20.
Trinidad & Tobago vs USA best odds
|Trinidad & Tobago||USA|
|Over 2.5 (-222)||Total||Under 2.5 (+143)|
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on November 20, 2023.
Trinidad & Tobago vs USA picks and predictions
The Americans will be without midfielder Weston McKennie for the return leg after he suffered a slight knee injury during Thursday night's match. He was one of the best players on the pitch, and his five chances created were joint-most with Antonee Robinson.
But his absence will hurt at both ends of the pitch, and that’s why I’m backing both teams to score with at least three total goals tonight.
Whenever the United States lost the ball, McKennie was one of the primary players leading the charge to regain possession. He also had the deepest average position of any American midfielder, allowing him to play a deep-lying playmaker role while also helping clean up anything headed the other way.
Gregg Berhalter is going to have to not only replace his energy in the center of the pitch, but he’s going to have to keep his players’ fitness levels in mind as they prepare to head back to their clubs. No matter who fills his shoes, there will be a dropoff in performance.
There’s also the change in mindset of the two teams. The Americans won’t be facing a team bunkering in. T&T will be desperate to get goals, and they know that losing big won’t matter given they’d be eliminated in a 0-0 draw just as easily as they would in a 6-1 defeat.
And anybody who follows CONCACAF knows that away fixtures can be troublesome for the United States. Between a combination of rough playing surfaces, iffy officiating, and just weird circumstances, the Yanks often struggle to dominate matchups where they’re clearly the better side.
T&T have done well at home this year, albeit against lesser opposition than what they’ll face Monday. They’re unbeaten in five matches at home including friendlies, winning four. They also have the aforementioned win at home in 2017, and a 0-0 draw in 2015.
The Americans should win — and will win — but T&T aren't going down without a fight, and squad rotation combined with the loss of McKennie will allow some strong chances to score. The USMNT will score a few goals as well, which is why we’re backing the TonyBet combo of three or more goals with both teams finding the back of the net at +217 odds.
My best bet: Over 2.5 goals + both teams to score - Yes (+217 at TonyBet)
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Trinidad & Tobago vs USA same-game parlay
In addition to backing both teams to score, with three or more total goals in this match, we’re going to take the United States to find a goal in both halves. T&T will have no choice but to push forward in attack, and the Americans have the firepower to hit them on the break.
If Gio Reyna is able to get open space to work with, he will rip apart the T&T back line. As T&T wear down, the USMNT bench players should find more space to work in, and goals will be scored on either side of the break.
Trinidad & Tobago vs USA side and Over/Under analysis
The Americans are heavily favored yet again, although not by as much as they were in the first leg. Being away from home against a CONCACAF foe has the line a bit less juiced. That said, you’re still laying at least -1,000 to back the Yanks — a far cry from the -6,000 price on Thursday.
The price for a Trinidad win stretches between +1,400 and +2,200, while the draw is priced as high as +900. There could potentially be a little value on the draw, and it might be worth a tiny sprinkle.
As for the total, we’re backing at least three goals but you’re getting juiced again. You’ll have to go up to 3.5 goals to get a good price on the Over, and it’s worth a small play. The last five meetings between these two teams have seen at least three goals scored, including the trio late on Thursday.
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Trinidad & Tobago vs USA game info
|Location:||Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain|
|Date:||Monday, November 20, 2023|
|Time:||7:00 p.m. ET|
|Weather:||80 F, 7 mph winds, POP 1%, 85% humidity|
Trinidad & Tobago vs USA key injuries
Trinidad & Tobago: Noah Powder M (Out).
USA: Weston McKennie M (Out), Christian Pulisic F (Out), Timothy Weah F (Out).