PSG vs Barcelona Predictions and Picks: Raphinha Keeps Pressure On

Two familiar foes will do battle on Wednesday when PSG and Barcelona meet in the first leg of their UCL quarterfinal. Our Champions League odds have the Parisians as favorites to claim victory.

With the Ligue 1 title all but secured, PSG turns attention to Europe’s biggest competition and the only trophy absent from their case. Kylian Mbappe will lead his team in hopes of leaving the club this summer a conquering hero.

To do so means defeating a Barcelona side that has caused them heartbreak in this competition. With Real Madrid pulling away in La Liga, this is the final chance for hardware for Xavi’s side and they’ll look to continue a run of 11 matches without defeat.

Our PSG vs Barcelona betting picks and predictions for Wednesday, April 10 explain why injuries for PSG provide a boost in value for one player’s shot props. 

PSG vs Barcelona best odds

PSG vs Barcelona picks and predictions

PSG were dealt a blow on Monday when right back Nordi Mukiele was ruled out for this fixture after a head injury in their draw at the weekend vs Clermont. This is in addition to the absence of Achraf Hakimi, the usual starter at the position.

For Luis Enrique, it presents a bit of a headache as he now has no natural right backs for the match with Barcelona. But for us, it presents an opportunity to make profit as we target the man who will attack PSG’s makeshift fill-in for that position.

TonyBet is offering odds of +125 for Raphina to attempt at least three shots, which presents terrific value. Barcelona has recently had him shifting from the right wing to the left, as Lamine Yamal’s form has him in the starting lineup on Raphina’s preferred side. 

But while his shot volume has gone down a bit since that move, he’s recently found his shooting boots again. In his three starts on the left in March, Raphina attempted 10 shots. This includes five shots in their most recent outing, a 1-0 win over Las Palmas at the end of the month.

In their last Champions League match, he attempted four shots against Napoli with three finding the target. One of those came from a free kick, and his involvement in taking set pieces near the box increases his chances of reaching three or more efforts in this match.

Warren Zaire-Emery is expected to fill in at right back for PSG. While he’s an extremely talented player, he primarily operates in midfield. Removing him from that area hurts PSG’s ability to control the midfield, which is helpful for a Barcelona side dealing with key injuries in that area. 

That helps Barcelona’s attacking ability, which should lead to more opportunities in the final third for Raphinha to get on the ball. With much of Paris’ focus on dealing with Robert Lewandowski, he’ll be able to find a few pockets of space to get off his shot. We’ll bank on him doing so at least three times for a profitable afternoon. 

My best bet: Raphinha 3+ shots (+125 at TonyBet)

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PSG vs Barcelona same-game parlay

Raphinha 3+ shots 

Raphinha to score or assist 

Both teams to score

30% boost available

+500 +650 at bet365

Raphinha has scored or assisted in each of his last three starts, and has two goals and three assists over his last five starts for the club. With him being on free kicks and having a make-shift right back marking him, I like his chances to extend that streak.

PSG are on an unbeaten run of 27 matches, but they’ve kept clean sheets in just 10 of them. Barcelona have only allowed one goal over their last six matches combined, but have just two clean sheets so far in Champions League and won’t be able to deny the likes of Mbappe for a full 90 minutes.   

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

PSG vs Barcelona side and Over/Under analysis

The 3-way money line sees PSG getting around even money to get the victory at Parc des Princes, where they’ve lost just once and not since September. Barcelona have just one win versus two defeats and a draw in their four away UCL fixtures, which explains their price of +270. 

The draw offers solid value at +275, which I believe should be closer to +250. PSG will find a goal, but Barcelona’s defense has been rock solid of late. The Spanish side will also likely see the return of midfielder Frenkie de Jong, and they’ve got 10 days rest to help regenerate their side. I like them to share the spoils here.

As for the total, you’ll need to lay juice of -140 or so to back the Over. The Under is better than even money currently, and isn’t a terrible play here. Real Sociedad provided the blueprint of how to break up PSG’s attack in the last round, and Barcelona are defending much better than their fellow La Liga outfit. 

PSG also are going to be cognizant of the threat presented by lacking a true right back, and their midfield will be a bit weakened by the shifting. This should lead to a bit of a cagier affair, and I can see this ending in a 1-1 stalemate. That said, I’m likely avoiding the total altogether. 

PSG vs Barcelona game info

PSG vs Barcelona key injuries

PSG: Achraf Hakimi D (Out), Nordi Mukiele D (Out), Presnel Kimpembe D (Out). 
Barcelona: Gavi M (Out), Alejandro Balde D (Out), Frenkie de Jong M (Probable), Pedri M (Doubtful). 

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