Week 1 of the Premier League season gave us plenty to talk about, but Week 2 is all about figuring out what's real and what's just noise.
One bad performance doesn't make a bad team, and one big win doesn't suddenly make a contender.
With that in mind, let's cut through the early-season overreactions and find some value with my Premier League moneyline picks for every Matchweek 2 match.
Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 2
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Crystal Palace vs  Manchester City |
59% |
 Liverpool vs  Nottingham Forest |
66% |
 Coventry City vs  Hull City |
53% |
 Bournemouth vs  Everton |
Draw 27% |
 Tottenham vs  Newcastle |
33% |
 Chelsea vs  Brighton |
52% |
 Leeds United vs  Brentford |
35% |
 Sunderland vs  Fulham |
Draw 30% |
 Manchester United vs  Ipswich Town |
69% |
 Aston Villa vs  Arsenal |
64% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 2
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City pick: Manchester City
Neither side exactly inspired confidence on opening weekend, but I'm more willing to trust Manchester City to clean things up after an uneven 2-1 win over Bournemouth. Crystal Palace struggled to turn possession into chances in a 2-0 loss at Everton, and that lack of attacking threat makes it difficult for me to back the Eagles against City.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest pick: Liverpool
A 2-2 draw at Newcastle wasn't the perfect start to the Andoni Iraola era, but I'm not sounding the alarm on Liverpool after dropping points in one of the tougher away fixtures on the schedule. Back at Anfield against Nottingham Forest, the Reds should control considerably more of the match and give Iraola his first Premier League win.
Coventry City vs Hull City pick: Coventry City
Hull produced one of Matchweek 1's biggest surprises by beating Manchester United 2-0, while Coventry were handed a rude welcome back to the Premier League in a 3-0 loss at Arsenal. I'm not overreacting to either result, and this is a much better measuring stick for Coventry as they return home to face another promoted side.
Bournemouth vs Everton pick: Draw
Bournemouth showed enough in their narrow loss at Manchester City to earn my respect, but Everton were equally impressive in a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace. There isn't enough separating these sides for me to lay money with the Cherries, so I'll happily take the draw in what looks like one of the weekend's tighter matchups.
Tottenham vs Newcastle pick: Newcastle
Tottenham's 3-0 loss at Brentford was one of the more concerning performances of Matchweek 1, and a growing injury list doesn't make me any more interested in backing Spurs as favorites. Newcastle looked far more competitive in a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, and I'm willing to take my chances with the Magpies on the road.
Chelsea vs Brighton pick: Chelsea
Brighton's 4-0 win over Aston Villa certainly got my attention, but this is a difficult turnaround with the Seagulls also playing in Europe on Thursday. Chelsea have the luxury of a full week to prepare, and that rest advantage combined with playing at Stamford Bridge is enough for me to side with the Blues.
Leeds United vs Brentford pick: Brentford
Brentford couldn't have asked for a better start after dismantling Tottenham 3-0, and I'm willing to buy into the Bees before the market fully adjusts. Elland Road is never an easy place to visit, but Brentford looked dangerous and organized enough on opening weekend for me to back them at plus money against Leeds.
Sunderland vs Fulham pick: Draw
I'm not rushing to back Sunderland as a favorite after their opening loss to Ipswich, but I'm also not convinced enough by Fulham to take them on the road. With neither side giving me a compelling reason to trust them outright, I'll split the difference and take my second draw of Matchweek 2.
Manchester United vs Ipswich Town pick: Manchester United
Manchester United's 2-0 loss at Hull was ugly, but I'm not prepared to throw everything we liked about Michael Carrick's side out the window after 90 minutes. United now return to Old Trafford against a promoted Ipswich side, and if the Red Devils can't win this one, we can start having a very different conversation next week.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal pick: Arsenal
Aston Villa's offseason turnover was already concerning before Brighton hammered them 4-0 on opening weekend, and Arsenal are about the last team I'd want to see walking through the door next. Arsenal barely had to get out of second gear in their 3-0 win over Coventry, and they're my most confident moneyline selection of Matchweek 2.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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