Whenever you get down to four teams remaining in a tournament, there's always a chance that the best two teams remaining face off a round early. And based on the odds, it's happening in this year's UEFA Champions League competition.
Manchester City and Paris-Saint Germain are the Champions League betting favorites to win it all—but only one of them will actually make the final as they kick off their two-leg semifinal series Tuesday at Le Parc des Princes. Man City reached the final four with a 4-2 aggregate triumph over Borussia Dortmund, while PSG advanced on the away goals tiebreaker after finishing in a 3-3 deadlock through two legs against favored Bayern Munich.
These are our favorite Champions League bets for Paris-Saint Germain v. Manchester City on April 28.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester City odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Champions League sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings pegged Manchester City a +110 favorite back on April 14 and loosened to +133 April 19, then over the last couple of days shortened to +106, the moneyline price at 12:30 p.m. ET game day. Paris Saint-Germain is a +240 underdog, and Draw is +270. Man City is taking 48 percent of tickets and 41 percent of money, PSG is seeing 44 percent of tickets/53 percent of money, and Draw is landing 8 percent of tickets/6 percent of money. The total opened at 2.5 (Over -175), the price today got as short as Over -130 and is now Over -141. The Over is landing 78 percent of bets/80 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameParis Saint-Germain vs Manchester City betting preview
Injuries
Paris Saint-Germain: Marquinhos D (Doubtful), Rafinha M (Out), Alexandre Letellier GK (Out).
Manchester City: None to report.
Betting trend to know
PSG has conceded at least one goal in six straight Champions League matches.
Moneyline pick
It's interesting to see PSG listed as the second favorite to win the Champions League title for the first time. Getting past Bayern Munich is a formidable accomplishment, but PSG have been surprisingly ineffective at home in recent weeks, with just three victories in their previous eight games at Parc des Princes across all competitions.
Man City, on the other hand, are in a class by themselves. They're the most complete domestic team on the planet, having cruised to a double-digit lead atop the English Premier League table and coming off a 1-0 victory over Tottenham to secure their fourth consecutive Carabao Cup title. City have just one away defeat in 16 league matches on the season.
PSG will not make this easy, but Man City are completely fit and ready to exert their dominance as they seek their first UEFA Champions League title.
PICK: Manchester City (+115)
Over/Under pick
It's easy to see why the O2.5 play carries much lower odds than the U2.5 option. Both teams have been offensive forces since the Champions League elimination round began, averaging two goals over their respective four legs. Manchester City has scored exactly two goals in each of those four games, while PSG has three- and four-goal performances in that stretch.
Still, bettors shouldn't blindly smash the Over here. Man City are also one of the most defensively responsible teams in the world, having allowed just nine goals in 16 away games in domestic play, to go along with just three goals surrendered in 10 Champions League games. PSG are the No. 2 defensive team in Ligue 1 and have allowed just 11 goals in 10 tournament matches.
That all said, it won't take much to push this game above the total—and we're confident that will happen behind two of the most explosive offenses in European soccer.
PICK: Over 2.5 (-150)
Goal prop pick
Let's take a deeper dive into Manchester City's offensive dominance, and why that will pose a significant problem for the PSG back end.
It isn't just that Man City has racked up 21 goals through 10 tournament games—it's that the Premier League leaders have been getting contributions from just about everywhere. Ten different players have scored at least once for Man City in the Champions League, with a half-dozen players having tallied multiple times in the tournament.
Teams with balanced scoring like that are a whole lot tougher to defend—and the hosts are going to find that out the hard way in the opening leg of their Champions League tilt.
PICK: Manchester City Over 1.5 Goals (-110)
Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester City betting card
- Manchester City (+115)
- Over 2.5 (-150)
- Manchester City Over 1.5 Goals (-110)
Picks made on 4/26/2021 at 7:56 a.m. ET
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