Newcastle vs Tottenham Predictions and Picks: Not Spurs' Moment

Tottenham and Newcastle project as an even matchup on paper, but our EPL picks break down this matchup and find that one side should have a distinct edge.

Apr 11, 2024 • 11:53 ET • 4 min read
Alexander Isak EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Another exciting Premier League weekend starts with Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday 13th April. Newcastle sit eighth in the Premier League table but a win would get them up to 50 points and 10 behind Spurs, who currently sit fourth and in the final Champions League slot. 

With both teams coming into this with two wins and a draw in their last three, it should be an even battle, but one team is more likely to prevail. Don’t miss our Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur EPL betting picks and predictions to find out who.

Newcastle vs Tottenham best odds

EPL predictions for Newcastle vs Tottenham

This Saturday, we’re getting treated to a very exciting early kick-off with Newcastle vs. Tottenham, a game that is almost certain to see goals. Spurs come in fourth in the Premier League and in the final Champions League spot, with Newcastle four places and 13 points further back. 

It’s a role-reversal from last season, which saw the North London team finish down in eight and Newcastle return to the Champions League after finishing fourth. In many ways, these teams are very well matched, with both having bagged 65 goals after 31 games this season. Not only that, but both teams have gone win-draw-win in their past three games, but there’s one major difference between them, which is where our best bet comes into play. We’ll be taking Newcastle to not only win, but do it with both teams scoring, available at EPL odds of +270.

Despite Newcastle having allowed seven more goals than Spurs, 52 to 45, across the season, it’s Spurs who seem be having bigger problems in their defense. Across their past 11 games in the Premier League, they’ve let the opposition score in 10. That number is simply too high and it’s what is going to ultimately cost them a Top-4 finish this season.

Since Ange Postecoglou has arrived in North London, he’s molded a Spurs team who love to attack and are arguably the most enjoyable to watch in the Premier League. That’s great for neutrals, who can tune in every week and see goals, and it’s great for fans, at least while they are winning. The problem is that it’s not sustainable and it’s going to catch up with them when they play better sides.

Over the past month, we’ve seen Spurs concede to Luton, who sit in the relegation zone, Nottingham Forest, who sit just above it and three goals to a midtable Fulham team. That isn’t good enough, and Newcastle, while missing a number of players, are hard to beat at home and will set up to take advantage of this naivety.

It’s likewise hard to imagine Newcastle being able to keep a clean sheet, after all they’ve averaging over 1.5 goals conceded per game, but they should be able to score multiple times and have scored in every since league game since Christmas. 

Spurs won the reverse of this fixture 4-1 just before Christmas but before that Newcastle had won 6-1 and 2-1 in succession. This fixture is one which breeds goals and with Newcastle playing a more street-wise brand of soccer, they should come out on top, even with Spurs scoring.

My best bet: Newcastle to win and both teams to score (+270 at TonyBet)

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Newcastle vs Tottenham same-game parlay

Newcastle to win

Both teams to score

Alexander Isak to score anytime

Bruno Guimaraes Over 0.5 fouls committed

The first two legs of the same-game parlay come from our best bet for the game, on top of which we’ll be adding Alexander Isak to score. The Swede has shone since arriving in the North East, but this season he’s really elevated his game and now has 15 goals in 23 appearances for the Magpies. He’s bagged five goals in his past five in the Premier League and is poised to take advantage of a Spurs defense who cannot defend.

For the final leg of our SGP, we’re going to back Newcastle’s Bruno Guimaraes to commit one or more fouls. The Brazilian is the engine of the Newcastle midfield and in a high-octane matchup like this, it’s more than likely he has to bring down an opposition player. Through 30 appearances in the Premier League, he’s picked up nine yellow cards and averages 1.3 fouls per game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Newcastle vs Tottenham side and Over/Under analysis

Given the best bet of Newcastle vs Spurs involves the home side winning, it won’t be a surprise to learn that they’re the moneyline pick too, with a Newcastle win coming in at +170. If you want to back against Eddie Howe’s team, the draw comes in at +309 and the Spurs win at +134, with Postecoglou’s team slight favorites. 

With Over 2.5 goals landing in 13 of Spurs’ past 14 in the Premier League, and 10 of the last 11 Premier League meetings between at St James’ Park, it won’t be a shock to see Over 2.5 goals as the very heavy favorite in the total market. Odds of -271 are frankly unplayable and the Under at +220 doesn’t appeal either. Instead, you’d be better off taking Over 3.5 goals at -112 if you expect goals galore. Over 3.5 has landed in four of Spurs’ past six on the road and five of Newcastle’s past seven at home.

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Newcastle vs Tottenham game info

Location: St. James' Park, Newcastle, England
Date: Saturday, April 13, 2024
Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
TV: Network
Weather: 70F, POP 8%, 5mph wind

Newcastle vs Tottenham key injuries

Newcastle: Jamaal Lascelles CB (Out), Tino Livramento FB (Out), Miguel Almiron FWR (Out), Sven Botman CB (Out) Lewis Miley CM (Out), Callum Wilson STR (Out), Joelinton CM (Out), Nick Pope GK (Out), Kieran Trippier FB (Out), Sandro Tonali CM (Out), Matt Targett FB (Out), Joe Willock CM (Questionable).
Tottenham: Ryan Sessegnon FB (Out), Manor Solomon FWR (Out), Fraser Forster GK (Out), Richarlison FWR (Questionable).

Newcastle vs Tottenham recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Newcastle Newcastle W-D-W-L-W
Tottenham Tottenham W-D-W-L-W

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