Wednesday night could be a preview of an MLS playoff matchup as the New England Revolution plays host to Atlanta United at Gillette Stadium.
Third in the Eastern Conference, the Revs saw their seven-match unbeaten run come to an end with a 2-1 loss at New York Red Bulls. Now they get their playmaker back, and hope to begin another run into second spot in the conference, remaining within touching distance of Cincinnati.
For the visitors, they will look to pick up a third straight victory after a run that saw them earn just eight of a possible 21 points, dropping them down to fifth. Victory would see them move back above New England and into the Top 4 in the conference.
With just four points separating second from sixth, every match is important for playoff positioning. Find out who is more likely to pick up those vital points in our New England Revolution vs. Atlanta United MLS betting picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 12.
New England Revolution vs Atlanta United best odds
New England Revolution vs Atlanta United picks and predictions
The absence of Carles Gil in the New England lineup was clearly felt in the 2-1 defeat to NYRB over the weekend. They managed just six shots and created only two big chances, despite having a decent amount of possession. Just two of their shots were on goal, and while one was converted, they never truly looked threatening.
And it’s easy to understand why. Gil has been on fire of late, with five goals and two assists over his last seven starts. That includes a 3-3 draw with Atlanta United at the end of May, in which he scored two goals — the first of which came inside of the opening minute.
Now he returns, having served his one-match ban for yellow card accumulation, and will be going against an Atlanta side that has just two wins on the road through 11 matches this season, keeping just three clean sheets in that time. One of those was a 1-0 win at Montreal this weekend, but before that, the Red Bulls put four past them.
More importantly, Atlanta will be without Miles Robinson in defense. The star man is with the USMNT for Gold Cup duty, leaving Atlanta somewhat exposed in their back line. That’s going to open up opportunities for Gil to link with striker Gustavo Bou, who has two goals and two assists of his own over the past four matches. It was his assist that set up New England’s only goal against NYRB.
New England has been terrific at home this season, and their 23 goals in front of friendly support are the third-most of any side in the Eastern Conference behind Columbus and Atlanta. On the flip side, only Montreal and Houston have conceded more times away from home this season than Atlanta across the entire league.
Gil has faced Atlanta five times in his career with the Revs, and he’s either scored or assisted a goal in four of those matches. Atlanta’s poor away defensive showing, combined with the absence of Robinson, will open the door for him to do so once again.
Take Gil to either score or assist at DraftKings, the only book offering the prop as of Tuesday evening, at a solid price of -125. Be sure to check FanDuel throughout the day on Wednesday, as they also offer the prop but have yet to include odds for most New England players.
My best bet: Carles Gil to score or assist (-125 at DraftKings)
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New England Revolution vs Atlanta United side analysis
New England’s home form sees them favored at near even money on the 3-way line. Their price has come down after opening in some places at -130, while an Atlanta win has improved in price to between +220 and +280, offering quite the range. The draw has settled to about +260.
New England has lost just once this season at home, a US Open Cup loss to Pittsburgh. In MLS, they’ve gone unbeaten in 10 with seven victories including a draw with Cincinnati. They’ve outscored their opponents 23-9 but haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last six. They’ll be a bit short-handed on Wednesday, as Latif Blessing was sent off against NYRB and will serve a suspension. Nacho Gil and Thomas McNamara will also miss due to injury.
Atlanta will be without Robinson in defense, but also lost striker Georgios Giakoumakis in the win over Philadelphia earlier this month. He’s doubtful for Wednesday's match, limiting an attack that has managed just 14 goals in 11 away matches this season. Atlanta have won just twice on the road, drawing five and losing four, and they’ve conceded multiple goals in six of those outings.
New England’s going to miss Blessing in midfield, but their firepower up front should be more than enough to see them to a win. The Revs play much better at home this season and Atlanta simply isn’t good on the road, so backing a New England win is the play here as the Revs beat Atlanta for the third straight time at home.
New England Revolution vs Atlanta United Over/Under analysis
The standard 2.5 total is heavily juiced towards the Over, and when you look at New England’s matches at home this season you’ll understand why. Each of their last four home fixtures have seen at least three goals, with three of those having four or more goals scored. In fact, the Over 2.5 is 7-3 at Gillette Stadium this season.
Atlanta’s not doing much to help bring the number down themselves, although the trend of late has shifted a bit. The Over 2.5 is 7-4 in their 11 away fixtures, but only one of the last four have gone Over.
Adding to matters is how these sides match up historically. Four of the last five meetings have featured three or more goals, including 2-1 scorelines in the last two at Gillette. That’s why I’m on the Over here, but I’ll be parlaying it rather than paying the juice straight up.
New England Revolution vs Atlanta United game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 12, 2023 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
New England Revolution vs Atlanta United key injuries
New England Revolution: Latif Blessing M (Out), Nacho Gil F (Out), Thomas Mcnamara M (Out).
Atlanta United: Georgios Giakoumakis F (Doubtful), Miles Robinson D (Out).
New England Revolution vs Atlanta United weather
It’ll be a warm one in Foxboro on Wednesday evening. Temperatures at kickoff will be in the high 80s, with little wind to cool people off. There will also be no rain impacting play, with a 0% chance in the forecast.
