It’s second leg time in the Carabao Cup semifinals this week, and Manchester City and Newcastle meet at the Etihad with a place at Wembley at stake.
City hold the advantage here, and with Newcastle needing to get back into this tie early, the game should become open, which is why our Manchester City vs. Newcastle predictions expect Man City to win but for both teams to score.
Read on for my free betting picks for Wednesday, February 4, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Man City vs Newcastle picks and predictions
My Man City vs Newcastle best bet: Man City to win and both teams to score (+210 at Sports Interaction)
When we previewed the first leg of this Carabao Cup semi-final, the angle was clear: Manchester City could exploit a Newcastle defense under pressure. That’s exactly what happened, as Pep Guardiola’s side walked out of St. James’ Park with a controlled 2–0 lead.
That scoreline dictates everything about the second leg. Newcastle United have no choice but to chase this game early if they want any shot at Wembley Stadium. An aggressive Newcastle setup opens the door to the exact game state City thrive in at home: space in transition, high turnovers, and sustained pressure once the first goal lands.
This is where the goals angle comes alive. City are the Premier League’s most prolific attack and have Erling Haaland leading the line, but they haven’t been airtight defensively. Since the first leg, City have conceded in three of their last five matches, and Newcastle actually outshot them in that opener; they just lacked finishing. That matters because it tells us Newcastle can create chances, especially if City are content to absorb pressure with a lead.
At the Etihad, though, City still hold every structural edge. They’ve failed to win just four home matches all season and have beaten Newcastle in 17 of their last 18 meetings at this ground. Add in City’s deep run history in this competition, second-most EFL Cup titles all-time, and the script is clear.
Newcastle’s urgency should force goals. City’s quality should finish the tie.
That combination points directly to a high-tempo game where both sides find the net, but City ultimately stay in control.
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Man City vs Newcastle same-game parlay (SGP)
Man City to win and both teams to score
Antoine Semenyo to commit 1+ foul
Nick Woltemade to commit 1+ foul
Antoine Semenyo has been excellent since arriving from Bournemouth in January, but with his physical playing style, he does often attract attention from referees. He’s averaged 1.67 fouls committed per 90 minutes in the Premier League since his move and with Wembley on the horizon, he’ll do everything in his power to stop Newcastle from getting anything at the Etihad.
Nick Woltemade to also commit a foul. Much like Semenyo, the big German looks a great signing, but he can give up too many fouls. He’s averaged 1.04 fouls committed per 90 minutes played, and with his big body, he seems to attract the ref’s whistle, even when sometimes it seems soft.
Man City vs Newcastle odds
 Man City |
 Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| -130 | Moneyline | +310 |
| +290 | Draw | +290 |
| Over 2.5 (-165) | Total | Under 2.5 (+120) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
How to watch Man City vs Newcastle
| Location | Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England |
| Date | Wednesday, February 4, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Mostly cloudy. |
Man City vs Newcastle key injuries
Man City: Jeremy Doku FWR (Out), Josko Gvardiol CB (Out), Mateo Kovacic CM (Out), Savinho FWR (Out), John Stones CB (Out), Ruben Dias CB (Questionable).
Newcastle: Joelinton CM (Out), Emil Krafth DEF (Out), Fabian Schar DEF (Out), Tino Livramento FB (Out), Jamaal Lascelles CB (Out), Bruno Guimarares MID (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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